The worldwide plunge in manufacturing output seems to have reached a temporary bottom, even in countries such as Japan where the industrial downturn was especially severe. Nonetheless, the immediate outlook for a resumption of world economic growth remains tentative and in flux, according to the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: Third Quarter 2009 Through Fourth Quarter 2010.

Weak growth, at best, is in store for the advanced economies during 2010, according to MAPI economist Cliff Waldman.The short-term prospects are mixed for key emerging market economies, depending upon the degree of openness, export diversification, and ties to the United States. The report says that U.S. export demand will contract at an historic pace before …