The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -2.30 in May, little changed from -2.27 in April. All four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in May.
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was -2.67 in May, up slightly from -2.73 in the previous month. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates low inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The small decrease in the index in May was primarily due to the production and income category of indicators. This category made a larger negative contribution to the index in May, -0.65, compared with its contribution in April, -0.47. …
