The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -1.80 in June, up from -2.30 in May. All four broad categories of indicators continued to make negative contributions to the index, with employment and housing-related indicators accounting for much of the weakness in June.
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was -2.12 in June, up from -2.65 in the previous month. June’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates low inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The increase in the index was primarily due to the production and income category of indicators. This category made a smaller negative contribution to the …
