The World Trade Organization raised its global goods trade outlook for this year, following a 1.1% decline in 2023 driven by inflation and rising interest rates.

The Geneva-based WTO anticipates a 2.7% increase in global goods trade through the rest of 2024 and 2025, following a 2.3% increase year-over-year in the first half of 2024. The organization had previously projected a 2.6% increase in April.

“We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the October 2024 update. “The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes.”

Additionally, the WTO said that inflation decreased far enough by mid-2024 for central banks to begin cutting interest rates.

“It is imperative that we continue to work collectively to ensure global economic stability and sustained growth, as these are fundamental to enhancing the welfare of people worldwide,” Okonjo-Iweala added.

To read more about the WTO October 2024 update, click here.