The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose again in July to 117.0, up from 110.1 in June and to the highest level since July 2021. 

This increase reflects “pops in both current conditions and expectations,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, in a July 25 news release.

“Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year,” he added. “Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.”

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — improved to 160.0 from 155.3 last month.

The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — improved to 88.3 from 80.0 in June.

“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market.”  — The Conference Board

Importantly, Expectations climbed well above 80 — the level that historically signals a recession within the next year, The Conference Board wrote.

“Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market,” they wrote. “Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before yearend.”