In the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation Global Outlook, senior economist Cliff Waldman notes that, more than five years past the 2009 economic crisis, many sectors in many economies are still in the early stages of recovery.
“Central banks have played and continue to play pivotal roles in bringing the world economy back to its feet,” Waldman said. “Fiscal policies, with a few notable exceptions, seem generally unhelpful, constrained by a combination of outdated economics and cynical post-crisis politics.”
Waldman said that the U.S. economy's improvement is the best hope for pulling the world out of its economic crisis, but it still has a way to go.
“From recent data it remains clear that the U.S. recovery is far from adequate,” he said.
Aggregate GDP growth in non-U.S. industrialized countries – which include Canada, the Eurozone, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Japan – is expected to be uneven, with acceleration from 2 percent during the first half of 2014 to 2.5 percent through the first quarter of 2015. Following that, MAPI anticipates growth of 2.7 percent in the second quarter of 2015, 2.6 percent in the third quarter and 2.4 percent during the fourth quarter.
For major developing economies, MAPI projects compound annual GDP growth of 4.3 percent during the second quarter of 2014 and 4.5 percent during the second half of the year. Growth is predicted to rise to 4.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015 and 5 percent during the second quarter before moderating to 4.8 percent during the second half of 2015.
Slow growth and U.S. dollar appreciation are anticipated to result in sluggish external demand over the forecast period.
MAPI expects U.S. exports to advance by 5.1 percent in 2014 and 4.3 percent in 2015. The growth of goods and services imports is expected to be 3.3 percent in 2014 before jumping to 6.9 percent in 2015, faster than projected export demand.
“The anticipated increase in imports from 2014 to 2015 is a combination of typical volatility and the fact that we expect consumer spending growth to accelerate,” Waldman said.
