The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to -0.30 in November from -0.17 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from October, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in November.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.20 in November from -0.18 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.20 in November from -0.25 in October. Thirty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 48 made negative contributions. Thirty-nine indicators improved from October to November, while 44 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI decreased to -0.27 in November from -0.11 in October. Industrial production declined by 0.6 percent in November after decreasing by 0.4 percent in October. Moreover, manufacturing production was unchanged in November, following an increase of 0.3 percent in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.05 to the CFNAI in November, down slightly from +0.08 in October. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 211,000 in November after rising by 298,000 in October, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5 percent in November.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to -0.06 in November from -0.11 in October. Housing starts increased to 1,173,000 annualized units in November from 1,062,000 in October. In addition, housing permits moved up to 1,289,000 annualized units in November from 1,161,000 in the previous month. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of –0.02 to the CFNAI in November, up slightly from -0.03 in October.
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