Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.15 in November from +0.76 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from October, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.41 in November from +0.31 in October.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.28 in November from +0.18 in October. Forty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 43 made negative contributions. Thirty-six indicators improved from October to November, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI declined to +0.05 in November from +0.66 in October. Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in November after moving up 1.2 percent in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category also contributed +0.05 to the CFNAI in November, up slightly from +0.04 in October. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders Index increased to 64.0 in November from 63.4 in October. The contribution from employment-related indicators to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.11 in November. The civilian unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent in November. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.06 in November from –0.04 in October. Housing permits decreased to 1,298,000 annualized units in November from 1,316,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of December 19, 2017. At that time, November data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The October monthly index value was revised to +0.76 from an initial estimate of +0.65, and the September monthly index value was revised to +0.31 from last month’s estimate of +0.36. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the October and September monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
