In Recent Survey, Manufacturing's Outlook is Bright - Modern Distribution Management

In Recent Survey, Manufacturing’s Outlook is Bright

Balance outside data such as economic news with internal data to plan.
Kristen-Gawalis-MDMBlog

We spend a good portion of waking hours tracking a wide array of data and economic resources to triangulate and validate our market models. Here's a scan of what we're seeing. And at the end of this article, we offer a list of nice leading economic indicators we consistently track.

There is a positive trend in upgraded forecasts and optimism about the future. The National Association of Manufacturers/IndustryWeek third-quarter Survey of Manufacturers is out and with it an improved sense of optimism among manufacturers. While the first half of the year lacked strong growth, according to the report, more than 70 percent of respondents noted that they were “somewhat positive” about the business outlook for their firms right now, and 17 percent said they were “very positive.”

To that end, 13.5 percent expect sales to increase more than 10 percent in the next year, and 34.1 percent expect sales to go up 5 percent to 10 percent. Another third expect sales to increase up to 5 percent.

Employment plans were more muted in the survey, however, with 47 percent expecting their full-time employment levels to stay about the same.

Still, the increasingly positive outlook – welcome after so many years of flat expectations – is in line with economic indicators. While U.S. manufacturing employment was unchanged in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it jumped 28,000 in July. Many observers are calling August’s number unusual and not indicative of expectations for the industry going forward.

Here’s a look at net gains in manufacturing employment over the past 12 months, in thousands, seasonally adjusted:

\"Manufacturing

  The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing continues to climb, hitting 59 percent in August 2014. (A reading over 50 percent indicates the manufacturing economy is generally expanding. A PMI over 43.2 percent “over a period of time” indicates the economy as a whole is expanding, according to ISM.)

Here’s a look at the Purchasing Managers Index over the past 12 months:

\"Purchasing

 

 

Data is the best foundation for benchmarking and planning. From a planning perspective, the PMI is considered a leading indicator for businesses. And the employment data released by BLS is also considered a gauge of what is to come, providing a look at such items as wages, hours and overall employment gains and losses by industry.

But outside data needs to be balanced with internal data and your own experiences. According to Investopedia.com, a leading indicator is defined as “a measurable economic indicator that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. Leading indicators are used to predict changes in the economy, but are not always accurate.”

Here’s a nice list of some of leading economic indicators and how they might help businesses gauge conditions. 

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