Economy on Solid Footing to Begin 2017 - Modern Distribution Management

Economy on Solid Footing to Begin 2017

Positive economic reports bode well for upbeat year.
Eric-Smith-84x84

Two months into 2017, the U.S. economy is on solid footing and appears poised to continue its upward climb, according to the most recent economic reports.

Economists predicted a rebound this year, no matter who was in the White House. Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics, who late last year called the economy "politically agnostic," noted at the NAW Executive Summit last month that indicators were already changing direction just prior to the election. But some in manufacturing and distribution harbored doubt over their forecasts.

"Generally speaking, economists are saying that 2017 should hold modest growth for distribution and manufacturing," a bearings manufacturer said in MDM’s annual Industry Outlook Survey. "We’re skeptical though."

Skepticism might be turning to optimism. Survey respondents to the most recent MDM-Baird Distribution Survey, taken in January, were overwhelmingly upbeat. They projected revenue growth of 2.3 percent for the first quarter and 3.6 percent for the year, with no sectors forecasting a negative first quarter or 2017.

The latest numbers should bolster their confidence. Here are some reports from last week that show an uptick – albeit slow and steady – in a variety of economic measures.

  • The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book concludes that economic activity is expanding. Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace from early January through mid-February in most districts.
  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in January to 125.5, with gains in a broad range of the components that make up the index. It also reported that the Consumer Confidence Index increased in February to 114.8, from 111.6 in January.
  • The manufacturing sector expanded in February, and the overall economy grew for the 93rd consecutive month, according to supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The February PMI was 57.7 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the January reading.
  • January construction spending was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,180.3 billion, 3.1 percent above the January 2016 estimate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. The January figure is 1 percent below the revised December estimate of $1,192.1 billion

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