The economic crisis in China is alarming, but the yuan's troubles don't foreshadow another recession here, according to the most recent U.S. Economic and Manufacturing Outlook from the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation. That said, growth will be modest at best.
During MAPI’s quarterly economic forecast webinar, Chief Economist Daniel Meckstroth said global unease over China's financial woes coupled with deflation in commodity prices have bent the markets out of shape, but the U.S. is on relatively solid footing thanks to one key factor.
“Consumption is driving the economy," Meckstroth said. "It’s consistent, and it’s a large share of the economy. If we didn’t have it, we'd be growing at the same rate as Europe, about 1 percent."
Meckstroth said fears of a "hidden recession for 2016" are unfounded because such dramatic downturns occur only with a major imbalance. Even larger-than-usual corrections, such as the current one, can happen in an expansion phase but aren't an indication of fundamental problems, only slower growth.
The webinar also revealed that despite news of manufacturing employment decreasing by 17,000 in August, manufacturing construction is booming. The U.S. saw a 56 percent increase in manufacturing construction in first half of 2015 behind the strength of the transportation equipment ($11.6 billion) and chemical ($41.9 billion) sectors, Meckstroth said.
And manufacturing production, which plummeted 20 percent post-recession, is now just 2.5 percent below the December 2007 level. With the current rate of growth, Meckstroth projects that gap will close by third-quarter 2016.
