When it comes to the strength of the business and the economy, "the big execs are not saying the same thing as what's in the media," says Peter Ricchuiti, a professor at Tulane University and the founder of the Burkenroad Reports. And if you add in the market signals, a definite ramp-up is in the wings for industrial companies.
Ricchuiti examined those market signals at the annual convention for the Association for Hose and Accessories Distribution this weekend in Colorado Springs, CO.
Over the past two years, Ricchuiti says, industrials have lagged the rest of the economy. But in the last five months, they've been outperforming other sectors – a sign that over the next 12 months, things should be looking a bit brighter.
A lot of people are still "feeling like they missed they economic rise," he says. But there are very few – if any – actual data points that justify that pessimism. The best indicator over time – the yield curve, which compares returns on long-term and short-term investments – is "very positive."
But that doesn't mean the U.S. is entirely in the clear. Since 2009, companies have shifted how they use profits away from capital expenditures to mergers and acquisitions and share buybacks. They're building cash reserves rather than investing in organic growth and development. That doesn't help build long-term strength for a company, nor does it give a company a competitive edge. (Read more on why investing is so important in today's market in 2016 Distribution Remodel: Invest or Die.)
If you weed through the doom and gloom being reported in so many arenas, Ricchiuti says, the market is signaling great opportunities. It won't be the gangbuster growth seen before the Great Recession – "We need 3 to 3.5 percent GDP growth to really get that going," he says – but it's a turn in the right direction.