Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.49 in April from +0.07 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, and only one category made a negative contribution to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.23 in April from a neutral reading in March.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved to +0.16 in April from +0.06 in March. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 39 made negative contributions. Forty indicators improved from March to April, while 44 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI rose to +0.46 in April from +0.01 in March. Total industrial production increased 1.0 percent in April after moving up 0.4 percent in March, and manufacturing production increased 1.0 percent in April after decreasing 0.4 percent in the previous month. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.07 in March.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in April, up from +0.05 in March. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 211,000 in April after increasing by 79,000 in March. The civilian unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4 percent in April from 4.5 percent in the previous month.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.08 in April from –0.06 in March. Housing starts decreased to 1,172,000 annualized units in April from 1,203,000 in March, and housing permits decreased to 1,229,000 annualized units in April from 1,260,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of May 18, 2017. At that time, April data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The March monthly index value was revised to +0.07 from an initial estimate of +0.08, and the February monthly index value was revised to +0.15 from last month’s estimate of +0.27. Revisions to the monthly index value can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the March monthly index value was primarily due to the former, while the revision to the February monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
