The Conference Board reported its July 2024 Leading Economic Index (LEI) — an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and the direction the economy is heading — and the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) — an indication of the current state of the economy — on August 19.

The July 2024 LEI for the U.S. fell by 0.6% to 100.4 following a 0.2% decline in June, according to the latest index published by The Conference Board.

The LEI fell 2.1% over the six-month period ending in July 2024, a smaller rater that the six-month period between July 2023 and Jan. 2024 (-3.1%).

“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, The Conference Board Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators, regarding the latest report. “In July, weakness was widespread among financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions and softer building permits and hours working in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still negative yield spread.”

The July 2024 CEI for the U.S. was flat at 112.5, after a 0.2% increase in June.

In the six-month period between Jan. and July of 2024, the CEI grew by 0.9%, faster than its 0.5% growth rate over the previous six-month period. The component indicators of the CEI — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payment, manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production — improved in July, except for industrial production which had its largest negative contribution to the CEI since Jan. 2024.

In addition to reporting its LEI and CEI, the Conference Board posted the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. which decreased by 0.1% in July 2024 to 119.6, partially reversing the 0.2% increase in June. Over the six-month period ending in July 2024, the LAG’s growth rate softened to 0.6%, nearly half the 1.1% increase over the July 2023 to Jan. 2024 six-month period.

The Conference Board detailed that these data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward, with the Board expecting U.S. real GDP growth to slow over the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and investments. U.S. real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6% annualized in Q3 2024 and 1% annualized in Q4.”