Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International said the average sales performance by HARDI distributors was an increase of 17.9% during June 2022.

The average annual sales growth for the 12 months through June 2022 is 23.6% percent, HARDI said in its monthly TRENDS report.

“It looks like the annual sales growth has peaked,” said HARDI Market Research & Benchmarking Analyst Brian Loftus. “The annual sales growth was near 25% during the first quarter, then in the 23.5% area the second quarter. The annual sales growth rate has peaked in five of our seven economic regions, and the industry PPI peaked in April.”

The Days Sales Outstanding, a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills, was 39 days at the end of June 2022, HARDI said.

“The June 2022 DSO is comparable to June 2021,” Loftus said. “This rate is considerably better than the pre-pandemic June level in the 43-day area.”

Average monthly job growth was 450,000 during the first six months of the year but 375,000 during the second quarter, HARDI said. Monthly job gains in the 400,000 area is unsustainable, HARDI said, “especially since the average
monthly growth during the Great Expansion was 200K and the unemployment rate is down to 3.6%.”

“Growth for our economy and TRENDS has been exceptional but will be slowing during the year ahead,” Loftus added. “Interest rates are considerably higher than at the beginning of the year and consumer sentiment is considerably lower. Economic cycles are not extinct and this one is rolling over into the next phase.”