Economically, 2016 has been defined by upheaval and uncertainty. And "the hits just keep coming," according to the 2016 Q3 Global CFO Signals report from Deloitte. Are they signals of de-globalization?
While the third quarter surveys were conducted prior to the U.S. election, 85 percent of CFO respondents said that future performance for their companies would "depend at least somewhat on the election's outcome," while 57 percent said planning was affected by the uncertainty surrounding it.
Those results run contrary to results from the 3Q2016 MDM-Baird Distribution Survey, in which only 16 percent of respondents noted they were deferring business decisions because of the election. Even so, many noted their customers seemed to be in a "holding pattern."
Significant factors include the U.S.'s stance on global trade agreements. President-elect Donald Trump has been very vocal about his opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and his desire to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada. And the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation is concerned that the "U.S. has not concluded a trade deal since 2012, despite having two in the works for years (the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership)."
But it's not just events in the U.S. that have CFOs jumpy. The uncertainty still swirling around the long-term effects of the Brexit remain front of mind. And several countries, including Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Netherlands, face upcoming general elections or referendums. "Given recent events, it would behoove CFOs to be prepared for the kind of 'shocks' that roiled the UK with Brexit and the U.S. with the election," noted Ian Stewart, chief economist, Deloitte UK, in the report.
These events have tempered the overall global outlook. Net optimism in the Americas fell 11.3 points from the second-quarter survey, but remained positive at 19.7 – an indication of "considerable strength." At the same time, global events and conditions have lowered the overall outlook.
Europe was buoyed by positive results in Germany and France, but CFOs overwhelmingly expect future negative impact from the Brexit fallout.
Asia-Pacific, on the other hand, had a slightly more positive outlook. Japan experienced stabilization, with 69 percent of CFO respondents noting "broadly unchanged" outlooks. And China continues to adapt to the "new normal," with only 38 percent less optimistic about their prospects. This compares to 50 percent six months ago.