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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

It provides a thorough look at the state of the U.S. wholesale distribution economy today and what factors are influencing underlying demand.
Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

Premium Monthly

This issue is packed with 10 articles that span Amazon’s VMI launch, features on Watsco, ABC Supply and City Electric Supply, distributors’ industry event spending and more, plus an HVACR Market Profile.

Market Insight Reports

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.
See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.

Case Studies

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.
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This table highlights key financial metrics and trading multiples for 30 publicly traded distributors in the industrial and building products industries. Download the pdf in this article to see the data. Also find graphic illustrating median EBIDTA multiples for the same distribution companies.



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These materials,&nbsp ; prepared by Robert W. Baird & Co. for MDM are for informational purposes …

Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after a decrease of 0.1% in November. Output in November was previously estimated to have advanced; weaker data for a number of industries, particularly steel, led to the downward revision.


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For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production decreased 0.5% (annual rate). In the manufacturing sector, output increased 0.7% in December, and most major industry groups registered gains.


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The output of utilities fell 2.6%, the result of relatively mild temperatures during the month, while the output of mines moved up 0.8%.


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Over the 12 months ending in December, total industrial production increased 3.0%, to a level that was 112.4% of its 2002 average, and total …

Wholesale prices rose 1.1% in all of 2006, in contrast to the 5.4% rise in 2005, the Department of Labor reported. The government attributed the slower rate of advance to the index for finished energy goods, which fell 2% in 2006 after climbing 23.9% a year earlier. Otherwise, wholesale prices except foods and energy moved up 2% in 2006 following a 1.4% gain in 2005.


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At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by intermediate goods producers increased 2.8% in 2006 compared with an 8.6% advance in the preceding year, while the crude goods index declined 2.4% after moving up 21.1% in 2005.


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Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in December, seasonally adjusted. The rise follows a 2% advance in November and a 1.6% decline in October. At the …

In November, U.S. distributors’ year-to-date sales of power transmission/motion control products climbed 10.7% as compared to sales for January through November 2005, according to the latest November trend data released by the Power Transmission Distributors Association. Sales fell 3.6% over the previous month and were up 7.8% as compared to November 2005.


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Days sales in accounts receivables rose 1.3% as compared to October 2006 and increased 2.9% as compared to the same month last year.&nbsp ; Annualized sales to inventory ratio in November was 8.3, compared to 7.9 in 2005.


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For November, the confidence level of U.S. distributors decreased to 6.2 from 6.3 in October on a 10-point scale.


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Canadian distributors’ …

Private label products—products branded by a wholesaler-distributor—represent a break from the more traditional wholesale distribution approach of reselling manufacturers' branded products. In our new research study, Facing the Forces of Change®: Lead the Way in the Supply Chain, we found that private label strategies by wholesaler-distributors will expand substantially over the next five years.

Private labels will strengthen wholesaler-distributors' relationships with their customers. However, they will strain distributors' relationships with their suppliers by challenging the wholesale distribution channel's traditional …


1sourcesupplies is an alliance of distributors who want to offer single-sourcing programs to smaller customers, including inventory management, supply chain automation, streamlined billing and information analysis.


Mark Hill’s cutting tool distributorship, I.M.C. Supply Co., Memphis, TN, lost its biggest customer in 1997. The customer we lost really wanted us to have their business, but we didn’t have the programs they needed, Hill says.


Instead of folding, or scrambling to make ends meet, Hill pushed forward with a plan to find a way to offer single-sourcing solutions to his customers. Since that year, his business has doubled. About 65 percent of his business is now single-source.


Hill has decided to pass on his newfound knowledge in the form of a …


Overall U.S. construction in 2007 is forecast to slow from previous levels, thanks to a downturn in residential building, according to recent reports. But nonresidential construction should stay relatively strong in the new year, with institutional and commercial building leading the way.


McGraw-Hill Construction reports total construction starts will drop 1 percent in 2007. Housing starts will fall 5 percent, with both single and multifamily housing taking a hit.


A large backlog in unsold homes suggests home construction may be slow to turn around, but most analysts expect declines to moderate in 2007, according to the Fed. Housing demand may also improve in 2007.


McGraw-Hill reports that retail construction will decline as housing starts slow. Retail …

MSC Industrial Direct Inc., Melville, NY, said in a recent conference call with investors that it has seen a slowdown in revenue growth in the past few months.


We’re mindful of the ISM index and its historic correlation to our growth rate, CEO David Sandler said of the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly manufacturing report. While we believe a number of marketing and sales initiatives will moderate its impact … it is apparent that three to six months of ISM weakness has modestly affected our revenue growth and will probably continue to do so in the next couple of quarters if past experience proves out.”


Still, thanks in part to its acquisition of J & L Industrial Supply last year from Kennametal, the industrial MRO distributor recorded an increase in sales …

Modern Distribution Management’s November Inflation Index, which measures a cross-section of industrial supplies, was up 0.20% from the previous month, and up 4.04% from November 2005.

Summary of&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for the past 12 months:

November 2006 Index 266.5
October 2006 Index 265.9
September 2006 Index 265.6
August 2006 Index 265.2
July 2006 Index 264.0
June 2006 Index 263.0
May 2006 Index 262.1
April 2006 Index 262.1
March 2006 Index 262.1
Febuary 2006 Index 261.2
January 2006 Index 260.2
December 2005 Index 258.1
November 2005 Index&nbsp ; 256.1


Please click below on Related Document to view a detailed calculation of the&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for November 2006, listing the ten …

Sales


November 2006 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $331.3 billion, up 1.0% (+/-0.5%) from the revised October level and were up 7.9% (+/-1.2%) from the November 2005 level. The October preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.4 billion or 0.1%. November sales of durable goods increased 1.2% (+/-0.8%) from last month and were up 7.7% (+/-1.8%) from a year ago.&nbsp ;


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Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 5.0% and sales of electrical and electronic goods increased 2.9 %. November sales of nondurable goods were up 0.7% (+/-0.7%) …

November U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $335.02 million, according to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors’ Association, and AMT – The Association for Manufacturing Technology.


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This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 12.3% from October, but up 32.7% from the total of $252.38 million reported for November 2005. With a year-to-date total of $3,549.90 million, 2006 was up 29.4% compared with 2005.


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These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.


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Though below the exceptional September peak, the November results continue to show strong purchases of advanced …

Hype and speculation tend to follow an industry consolidator. The announcement last week that Home Depot CEO Bob Nardelli was ousted from his position over pay issues and lagging stock gains generated an inordinate amount of buzz. Some even claimed it is a repudiation of the Home Depot model itself and its relatively recent strategy to aggressively grow the wholesale distribution division.


Hardly. All we know versus a week ago is that HD has $210 million less to fund acquisition activities that instead went to Mr. Nardelli’s severance package (Wouldn’t you like to be chastised like that?). Now that will really slow the acquisition pace of HD Supply….


What’s lost in the shock value of the pay deal is that Home Depot’s net income in the most recent quarter, ended …

Prices for manufactured goods in Canada remained unchanged for a second consecutive month in November, while prices for raw materials increased after three months of significant declines.


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Prices charged by manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), were unchanged from October to November, as downward pressure from declining petroleum prices eased. Lower prices for primary metal products and petroleum products were offset by higher prices for chemical products, fruit, vegetables and feed products and pulp and paper products.


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The 12-month change in the IPPI was up&nbsp ; 1.9%, a higher rate of growth compared to the year-over-year increase of&nbsp ; 1.2% in October. Upward pressure came mainly from higher …

Construction spending during November 2006 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,184.1 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised October estimate of $1,186.7 billion. The November figure is 0.1 percent above the November 2005 estimate of $1,183.1 billion.


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During the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,110.5 billion, 5.4 percent above the $1,053.4 billion for the same period in 2005.


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Private Construction


Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $905.8 billion, 0.6 percent below the revised October estimate of $911.0 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $589.3 billion in November, 1.6 percent …

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December following a one-month decline, while the overall economy grew for the 62nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.


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ISM reported that manufacturing proved resilient in December, as the PMI returned to growth registering 51.4 percent after a decline (under 50 percent) in November. Both New Orders and Production made significant gains to drive the PMI back above the breakeven point. Manufacturing employment remained relatively unchanged as the Employment Index shows a negligible change for the second consecutive month.


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The Prices Index is trending downward, relieving some of the inflationary pressure that …

Investment Banking Directory

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