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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

It provides a thorough look at the state of the U.S. wholesale distribution economy today and what factors are influencing underlying demand.
Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

Premium Monthly

This issue is packed with 10 articles that span Amazon’s VMI launch, features on Watsco, ABC Supply and City Electric Supply, distributors’ industry event spending and more, plus an HVACR Market Profile.

Market Insight Reports

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.
See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.

Case Studies

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.
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Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,544,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.8 percent (& plusmn; 1.0%) …

Tuesday, April 17. I’m finishing my second day at the Hannover Fair in Hannover, Germany. In its 60th year, it is a collection of 13 industrial trade fairs at one site. The scale and scope of this global event is amazing, humbling and exhausting. That’s from someone who sometimes feels like half of life is spent at trade shows and conferences. Manufacturers, distributors and customers may in fact be consolidating, but this week is proof that the world of industrial products remains extremely fragmented. First impressions: I did not know there were so many manufacturers of electric motors, bearings, seals, and a long list of other products. The robotics and factory automation systems on display are simply incredible in terms of the combination of software with a range of …

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 1.0 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. This advance followed a 1.3 percent rise in February and a 0.6-percent decrease in January. The index for finished goods excluding foods and energy, or core inflation, was unchanged in March after moving up 0.4 percent in February.
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At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods increased 1.0 percent in March following a 1.1-percent advance a month earlier, and the crude goods index rose 3.2 percent after climbing 8.9 percent in February.
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Among finished goods, the index for consumer goods less foods and energy edged up 0.1 percent in March following a …

February U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $268.37 million, according to the Association for Manufacturing Technology and the American Machine Tool Distributors’ Association. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 9.7% from January, and down 6.3% from the total of $286.29 million reported for February 2006. With a year-to-date total of $565.54 million, 2007 was up 9.4% compared with 2006.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

The first two months of the year fit the forecast pattern of slower growth in 2007,” said John B. Byrd III, AMT President. “The strength of U.S. manufacturing activity is likely to …

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2007 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $340.8 billion, up 1.2 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised January level and were up 7.1 percent (+/-1.2%) from the February 2006 level. The January preliminary estimate was revised downward $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent. February sales of durable goods were down 0.8 percent (+/-1.0%) …

Our cover story this week in Modern Distribution Management on channel management has been a fascinating subject to research. There are some significant role shifts taking place. We gained a lot of input from innovators in manufacturing and distribution, including many more beyond those quoted in article.
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It was also a difficult topic to get beyond the generalizations, stereotypes and misperceptions that in fact too often form the basis for relationships and ultimately policies in many companies. For some people, channel management is an oxymoron, because they are using the same pricing and marketing formulas in place 10 or 20 years ago. But we found others who are finding some good …

Changing-Channels

This article is available to non-subscribers through online access below, or by purchasing the series, Changing Channels, in the MDM Store.

While the basic concepts for effective channel management haven’t changed, new competitive pressures have changed the focus to channel profitability. Here’s an analysis of the key shifts taking place in independent distribution channels. Part 2 of this article will outline manufacturer-distributor emerging best practices in channel management.

Relationships between manufacturers and distributors have been a topic of conversation at conventions for decades. The tension has always been there,” says Marshall Jones, a past president of the Specialty Tool and Fastener Distributors Association. “But the sources of that tension have changed.

Distributors and manufacturers are navigating uncharted territory and areas that until now maintained some …

Tighter global monetary policies, the unwinding of investment excesses, and the moderation that tends to accompany maturing expansions all point to an imminent period of slower growth for the global economy, according to a new quarterly report.

In the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: Second Quarter 2007 Through Fourth Quarter 2008, economist Cliff Waldman concludes that the impact of the housing downturn in the United States and the near-term path of the embryonic investment slowdown in China are the two key variables that will determine the strength and stability of the world economy during 2007 and 2008.&nbsp ;

Financial markets have been nervous about the U.S. and Chinese outlook,” he writes, “but most indications …

Sales. February 2007 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $340.8 billion, up 1.2 percent from the revised January level and were up 7.1 percent from the February 2006 level. February sales of durable goods were down 0.8 percent from last month, but were up 4.4 percent from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of lumber and other construction materials were down 3.0 percent and sales of electrical goods decreased 1.8 percent. February sales of nondurable goods were up 3.2 percent from last month and were up 9.8 percent from last year. Compared to last month, sales of petroleum and petroleum products increased 8.8 percent …

Channel management is a slippery subject. The most jaded observers might argue the term has largely become an oxymoron, as stories of mismanagement and dysfunctional practices seem like commodities.

But as the lead article in this issue outlines, distributors and manufacturers are finding ways to leverage the current shifts in markets to focus and define their value. Channel participants are grappling with many complex issues -converging channels, private label brands, new product programs, new discount models.

The key emphasis today is active management. One size can’t fit all. Those who gain some understanding of how customers are shifting in their sourcing needs and problems, and then build programs and policies to meet those needs, find a competitive differentiator …

Modern Distribution Management’s February Inflation Index, which measures a cross-section of industrial supplies, was up 0.29% from the previous month, and up 3.27% from February 2006.

Summary of&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for the past 12 months:

February 2007 Index 269.4
January 2007 Index 268.7
December 2006 Index&nbsp ; 267.1
November 2006 Index 266.5
October 2006 Index 265.9
September 2006 Index 265.6
August 2006 Index 265.2
July 2006 Index 264.0
June 2006 Index 263.0
May 2006 Index 262.1
April 2006 Index 262.1
March 2006 Index 262.1
February 2006 Index 261.2

Please click below on Related Document to view a print-ready pdf of the&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for February 2007, …

Saw Blades represented a market in 2006 of $1.22 billion, according to estimates by Industrial Market Information, Minneapolis.&nbsp ;

These charts show the top ten industries, by SIC code, consuming these products; and the 2006 end-user consumption of these groups sorted by the nine
government market regions.

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Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the second consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 65th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing Institute for Supply Management Report On Business& reg; .
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Manufacturing improved slightly in March as the PMI reflected growth for the second consecutive month. The New Orders and Production Indexes advanced while the Employment and Inventories Indexes declined. A positive for March is the Customers’ Inventories Index (falling below 50% after five consecutive months above the breakeven line), which is a possible indication that manufacturers’ inventories are nearing satisfactory levels. On the negative side, prices appear to be …

Industrial production increased 1.0 percent in February after a decrease of 0.3 percent in January and a rise of 0.8 percent in December. Output in the manufacturing sector gained 0.4 percent in February and was led by increases in motor vehicles and in high-technology goods.
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The output of utilities jumped 6.7 percent in February, as colder-than-average temperatures boosted production at both electric and natural gas utilities. The output of mines edged up 0.1 percent. At 113.1 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial production for the month was 3.4 percent above its year-earlier level.
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The rate of capacity utilization for total industry in February rose 0.6 percentage point, to 82.0 percent, a level 1.0 percentage point above its 1972-2006 average. …

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,532,000. This is 2.5 percent (& plusmn; 1.0%) below the revised January rate of 1,571,000 and is 28.6 percent (& plusmn; 1.1%) below the February 2006 estimate of 2,147,000.
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Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,089,000; this is 3.1 percent (& plusmn; 0.9%) below the January figure of 1,124,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 372,000 in February.
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Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,525,000. This is 9.0 percent (& plusmn; 10.2%) …

Following a strong end to&nbsp ; 2006, wholesalers began the year on a subdued note, as weaker deliveries of automotive products and personal and household goods pushed overall sales lower.
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Wholesale sales declined&nbsp ; 0.5% in January to&nbsp ; $42.7&nbsp ; billion, reversing some of the&nbsp ; 2.7% gain made in December. Significant drops in the automotive products (-4.6%) and personal and household goods (-4.5%) sectors were behind all of decline in January. Both of these sectors had posted substantial gains in December.
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The remaining five wholesale sectors, representing&nbsp ; 67% of overall sales, all registered increases in January, led by the building materials and machinery and electronic equipment sectors.
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Ontario bore the brunt of …

Sales. January 2007 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $333.4 billion, down 0.9 percent from the revised December level, but were up 6.2 percent from the January 2006 level. The December preliminary estimate was revised downward $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent. January sales of durable goods were virtually unchanged from last month, but were up 5.7 percent from a year ago. January sales of nondurable goods were down 1.8 percent from last month, but were up 6.7 percent from last year.

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after …

Many if not most distributors measure product fill rates, and often report to customers in order to document their value. But how many distributors measure information fill rates? How well do you meet customer information needs, from a speed and quality standpoint?

A recent panel discussion on changes in distribution touched on a key observation. An astute panel member observed that velocity is a critical skill for a distributor today. Some may argue that hasn’t changed. Customers have always demanded high fill rates and on-time deliveries. But there is a difference.

Velocity is defined by speed and direction. Direction is all about how your company is positioned to meet customer needs. Customers expect and demand fast when it comes to logistics and product delivery. But …

Adhesives & sealants represented a market in 2005 of $2.3 billion, according to estimates by Industrial Market Information, Minneapolis. These charts show the top ten industries, by SIC code, consuming these products; and the 2005 end-user consumption of these groups sorted by the nine government market regions. …

Investment Banking Directory

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