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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

Premium Monthly

This issue is packed with nine articles that span private equity’s role in distribution M&A; case studies on Wesco, Stellar Industrial Supply and Watsco; the return-to-office movement and what being a data-driven company looks like.

Market Insight Reports

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.
See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.

Case Studies

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.
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This is the PDF of this issue of Modern Distribution Management.

Table of Contents:

  • Lessons from Avnet’s Rapid Growth
  • Commentary: The Power of Segmentation
  • Make Your Data Work to Grow Profits
  • Distributors’ Top Election Concerns

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The industrial producer price index rose by 0.4% in the euro area in April 2007. In March, prices increased by 0.3%.

In April 2007, compared with April 2006, industrial producer prices gained 2.4% in the euro area.

The highest monthly increases were registered in Bulgaria and Greece (1.9%) and Denmark (1.8%). Decreases were recorded in the United Kingdom (-0.8%), Slovakia (-0.3%) and Belgium (-0.1%).

The highest year-over-year increases were recorded in Luxembourg (8.7%), Hungary (8%), Bulgaria (7.9%)&nbsp ; and Lithuania (7.3%). A decrease was registered in Denmark.

For more on European economic statistics, including industrial production, price indexes, construction output and industrial orders,&nbsp ; visit the MDM …

April 2007 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $351.9 billion, up 1.3 percent from the revised March level and were up 8.8 percent from the April 2006 level. April sales of durable goods were up 0.8 percent from last month and were up 7.8 percent from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of hardware, and plumbing and heating equipment and supplies were up 2.7 percent. April sales of nondurable goods were up 1.8 percent from last month and were up 9.7 percent from last year. Compared to last month, sales of petroleum and petroleum products increased 6.7 percent.

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant …

Defining and selling value is a critical skill set in markets where customers have a range of sourcing options. Yet how well does your company analyze its market position in terms of value? How well are your associates trained in communicating and delivering this key differentiator that keeps you ahead of competitors?

The article on page 4 of this issue explores how manufacturers, distributors and sales representatives view the state of&nbsp ; value-add.” It offers some tools to analyze your company’s ability to perform extended value activities in key customer segments.

Survey results indicate that value-add definition and communication is just as tough a battle as five years ago. But there seems to be a broader recognition of its importance to staying competitive. …

The industrial product group listed here – MRO Pneumatic Products – represented a market in 2006 of $1.9 billion, according to estimates by Industrial Market Information, Minneapolis. These charges show the top 10 industries, by SIC code, consuming these products and the 2006 end-user consumption of these groups sorted by the nine government market …

At the May Industrial Supply Association annual meeting in Las Vegas, industry consultant William McCleave presented the results of a survey of ISA members, The Future Impact of Size and Value Content on Industrial Distribution.” This article outlines one of the key findings of that report: the importance of value-add in distribution.

How is value-add being defined in distribution today? As noted in these pages before, the term has been used so heavily that it risks losing meaning. At the same time, most wholesale distribution executives agree that market battles ahead will center on how well their companies define and sell value.

In a recent survey of Industrial Supply Association members by consultant William McCleave, most respondents felt that value-add …

Join Brent Grover on Thursday, June 21, 2007 for a 90-minute audio conference, 1 p.m. Eastern.

What’s your exit strategy? No matter when or how you plan to leave your business, there are key issues to address now to ensure a smooth transition. Whether you plan to sell or pass the torch to your son, daughter or key employee, this 90-minute audio conference presents the options to consider and fundamental decisions you need to make to have the right pieces in place at the right time.

Join Brent Grover as he shares his unique experience as the former CEO of the paper distribution business his grandfather started, as well as the varied knowledge gained through his current consulting business focused on wholesale distribution …

April 2007 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $351.9 billion, up 1.3 percent from the revised March level and were up 8.8 percent from the April 2006 level. The March preliminary estimate was revised upward $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent.

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April sales of durable goods were up 0.8 percent from last month and were up 7.8 percent (+/-2.0%) from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of hardware, and plumbing and heating equipment and supplies were up 2.7 percent.
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April sales of nondurable goods were up 1.8 percent from last month and were up 9.7 percent from last year. Compared to last month, sales of …

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the fourth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 67th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
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The PMI rose to its highest level in the past 12 months. Both the New Orders and Production Indexes indicated growth. The ISM Inventories Index indicates that manufacturers are now in their 10th month of inventory reduction. A major concern of respondents is the rate of price increases covering a wide variety of …

Real gross domestic product – the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the U.S. – increased at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first quarter 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The estimate is based on more complete source data than advance data released last month, when the increase was estimated at 1.3%.

In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.5%.

The increase in GDP was offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, …

Despite a soft first quarter, the U.S. economy should gradually improve through the end of the year, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Industrial Outlook, a report that analyzes 27 major industries.

Manufacturing industrial production expanded at a 0.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter 2007, but the MAPI forecast envisions an improved 3 percent growth rate in the second quarter.&nbsp ; For the year as a whole, though, the report predicts that manufacturing production growth will decelerate from the 4.7 percent recorded in 2006 to 2.1 percent growth in 2007, before rebounding to 3.3 percent growth in 2008.

The manufacturing inventory correction is over, the inexplicable decline in exports has passed, the January 1, 2007, EPA diesel …

Revealing the profit challenges and opportunities in the power transmission/motion control industry, a recent report from the Power Transmission Distributors Association supports forecasts made by PTDA members in late 2005 of moderate growth in sales with no change in gross margins in 2006.
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The Power Transmission Distributors Association announced the results of its 2007 PT Distributor Performance Report, based on 2006 data.
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When asked in October 2005 to forecast sales for 2006, 44% of distributor respondents indicated that they expected sales to increase between 5% and 9.9%. The actual sales growth rate for a typical PTDA distributor, as reported in the 2007 PT Distributor Performance Report, fell right in the middle of that range, with sales growth in 2006 …

Canada’s wholesalers had a third consecutive year of strong growth, with much of the impetus coming from the two westernmost provinces.

A combination of continued strong sales of machinery and electronic equipment and high demand for consumer-related goods propelled the industry to another record high, according to Wholesale Trade: The Year 2006 in Review,” a recently released report from Statistics Canada.

Nationally, wholesale sales increased by 6.3 percent to $497.4 billion (in current dollars) in 2006, slightly better than the previous year’s 5.2 percent increase. The gain in overall wholesale sales contributed to another profitable year for wholesalers, as industry profits rose 15.1 percent to a new record high of $16.6 billion.

This …

The mainstream media is poised to shout recession” from the rooftops, particularly as June tends to be a slow news month. We have heard consistent reports of flat to slowth growth, but no one is talking about cliff diving in manufacturing sectors. Some markets have stayed strong into May.

Even distributors into the tough automotive sectors are not exactly surprised, and have seen strong orders in other areas such as heavy equipment and aerospace. And while residential markets remain bleak, those distributors with commercial or industrial construction customers have seen those markets stay strong.

No one likes volatile market conditions, but if there is any consistency, it is that while some traditional markets are down, others are emerging to temper the damage. And …

Modern Distribution Management’s April Inflation Index, which measures a cross-section of industrial supplies, was up 0.42% from the previous month, and up 3.3% from April 2006.

Summary of&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for the past 12 months:

April 2007 Index 270.8
March 2007 Index 269.6
February 2007 Index 269.4
January 2007 Index 268.7
December 2006 Index&nbsp ; 267.1
November 2006 Index 266.5
October 2006 Index 265.9
September 2006 Index 265.6
August 2006 Index 265.2
July 2006 Index 264.0
June 2006 Index 263.0
May 2006 Index 262.1
April 2006 Index 262.1

Please click below to view a print-ready pdf of the&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for April 2007, listing the ten individual product categories that …

Both the overall U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the manufacturing sector will decelerate in 2007 before regaining a measure of strength in 2008, according to a new report.
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The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts that inflation-adjusted GDP growth, 3.3 percent in 2006, will slow to 2.3 percent in 2007 before rebounding to 3.0 percent in 2008. By supplying major assumptions for the economy and running simulations through the Global Insight Macroeconomic Model, the Alliance generates unique macroeconomic and industry forecasts.
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The deceleration in economic growth is primarily a consequence of the continued housing slump, soft business investment, a surprise downshift in exports, and inventory adjustment,” said Daniel …

Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after a decrease of 0.3 percent in March. Output in the manufacturing sector moved up 0.5 percent in April; the increase was led by advances in motor vehicles and parts and in high-technology goods.
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The output of utilities increased 3.5 percent; temperatures were relatively warm in March but fell below seasonal norms in April. Mining output decreased 0.3 percent in April. At 113.0 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial production for April was 1.9 percent above its year-earlier level.
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The rate of capacity utilization for total industry rose 0.4 percentage point, to 81.6 percent, a level 0.6 percentage point above its 1972-2006 average.
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Market Groups
All major market …

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following residential construction statistics for April 2007:

Year-to-Date Percent Change (through April 2007)

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Release taken from Statistics Canada.&nbsp ; All dollars are Canadian.

Canadian manufacturers had a strong March, following a slight increase in factory shipments in February, as previous supply disruptions caused by the rail strike and the refinery fire in Ontario were rectified.

In March, manufacturers shipped goods worth an estimated&nbsp ; $50.1&nbsp ; billion (Canadian), representing a&nbsp ; 2.8% gain over the previous month. For the first quarter, shipments were up&nbsp ; 1.0% compared to the fourth quarter of&nbsp ; 2006.

Using constant dollars, which take price fluctuations into account, the volume of shipments rose&nbsp ; 1.6% to&nbsp ; $45.1&nbsp ; billion, the fourth increase in five months.<br ...

March U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $371.1 million, according to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors’ Association and the Association For Manufacturing Technology.
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This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was up 34.9% from February, and up 1.4% from the total of $365.89 million reported for March 2006. With a year-to-date total of $945.27 million, 2007 was up 7.1% compared with 2006.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.
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The U.S. Manufacturing Technology Consumption (USMTC) report, jointly compiled by the two trade associations representing the production and distribution of …

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