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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

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It provides a thorough look at the state of the U.S. wholesale distribution economy today and what factors are influencing underlying demand.

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This issue includes seven articles that span Stellar Industrial’s buy-and-build technology approach; what to know before expanding across state lines; corporate DEI pushback; Ferguson’s digital strategy; and more.
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MDM 3Q 2024 MarketPulse Report

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.

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See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.
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MDM Case Study: Ferguson

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.
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Premium Articles
Economic Trends
October HVACR Sales Dip Slightly from 2007
National distributor sales of HVACR products for October were down 0.8% from a year ago, according to the Monthly Targeted and Regional Economic News for Distribution Strategies Report, produced by Heating, Airconditioning and Refirigeration Distributors International.
 
Among the eight HARDI regional reports, four in colder climates reported positive sales while four reported sales declines for the month. Over the previous twelve months, U.S. and Canadian wholesale sales were collectively up +0.2%.
 
Canada experienced the best performance for October with sales up 9.4%, while the Western region reported the poorest performance, down 11.1%. Only the Midwest region reported a decline in inventory level; all others indicated inventories were up. ...
Economic Trends
3M: Finding Balance in a Tough Economy
Like so many other companies in the current economy, 3M is finding itself in a position of making difficult decisions in order to survive. Over the past week, the company has announced that it would be laying off 2,300 workers before the end of the fourth quarter. Pay increases have already been deferred for many, and temporary workers and overtime have been eliminated. CEO George Buckley told analysts in a recent 2009 earnings outlook presentation that more cuts will be made if necessary.
 
But, according to Buckley, survival isn't enough. The changes being made at the company are all being made with the perspective that they will strengthen the company for when the economy returns to more sane"conditions. "This is the time for prudence, but it's not the time for ...
Economic Trends
October Wholesale Revenues Fall 4.1% From September
October 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers were $377.4 billion, down 4.1% from the revised September level, but up 2.7% from the October 2007 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September preliminary estimate was revised downward $2.4 billion or 0.6%.
October sales of durable goods were down 4.2% from last month and were down 1.6% from a year ago. Sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 5.2% from last month and sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 4.5%. Sales of nondurable goods were down 4.1% from last month, but were up 6.5% from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 11.2% from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were down 6.1%.
Total inventories of merchant wholesalers ...
Economic Trends
Advice from Automotive Suppliers: Communicate Internally & Externally
The U.S. automotive industry is struggling, and that means anyone in the automotive supply channel is likely struggling, as well. I recently spoke with distributors and manufacturers in the channel for an article on the impact they see down the line.
 
Mike Hamzey Jr., vice president and legal counsel for R.M. Wright Co. in Farmington Hills, MI, provided some advice when thinking about how to survive the crisis: Do what you have to do, but don't alienate your customers. There will still be options when all is said and done; we're not the only distributor in town."
 
Keep the lines of communication open, not only internally but externally as well. Your customers are aware of economic conditions, and they'd prefer not to be surprised when you need to change terms of ...
Economic Trends
MDM Reader Survey: How Global Trends Are Affecting Distributors
In MDM's recent Reader Survey, we asked respondents to tell us about the trends they are seeing in markets here and abroad. As one respondent said: The world is one large business market, and you have to watch the entire global regularly -and not just the home market."

In response to the survey question on how global issues are affecting their companies, some respondents said they weren't seeing any impact. Other respondents said:
 
·         Security, compliance and new freight charges are making domestic products more affordable to produce and purchase.
·         Stronger dollar is improving the cost position on ...
Economic Trends
Distributors Weather Auto Turmoil
The slowdown in the auto industry is being felt well beyond the Big Three automakers currently appealing to Congress for help. Distributors and manufacturers that serve the automotive industry are struggling to keep their own businesses solvent; business for many of them has dropped precipitously over the past few months.
Jeff Stohr, president of Conveyer and Caster -Equipment for Industry in Cleveland, OH, says he began noticing a slowdown in automotive about five years ago, but the real turning point was Nov. 1 of this year.
 
Our business at that time was a fraction of what would be considered normal,"Stohr says. The distributor of material handling products, casters and conveyor systems has annual revenues of $10 million to $15 million, with the automotive ...
Finance
MDM Interview, Part 2: Motion Industries’ Focus in 2009
In Part 2 of this interview with Motion Industries President and CEO Bill Stevens, he delves deeper into trends he is seeing in Motion's core markets, as well as issues distributors face going into 2009.
MDM: What opportunities do you have in the current market?
 
Bill Stevens: The exciting thing to me is the MRO market in North America is still very large. As long as there are manufacturing plants, some of what we sell is needed and that is an encouraging thought. My greatest concern is the instability of our economy. Our customers are most definitely affected by the deepening economic downturn.
 
How many people thought companies like Lehman Brothers and others would go like they did as quickly as they did? I think we all thought they ...
Economic Trends
Forecast: Canada Faces a ‘Rough First Half’
Canadian economists are saying the country will follow the U.S. into a recession. The severity of that recession -which is currently expected to be short -is dependent on how far the U.S. falls. Here's an overview of the current situation.
While conditions in Canada no more than a few months ago pointed to a downturn, a recession was not necessarily yet in the cards thanks to strong domestic demand and high commodity prices.
But with the U.S. economy officially in a recession, Canada is facing the same prospect. Demand for its products in the U.S. continues to fall despite a weakening of the Canadian dollar -which in any other year might make Canadian products more attractive to U.S. companies.
 
What's more, commodity prices and demand for raw materials have ...
Economic Trends
Monthly Wholesale Trade: October 2008
October 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers were $377.4 billion, down 4.1 percent from the revised September level, but up 2.7 percent from the October 2007 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September preliminary estimate was revised downward $2.4 billion or 0.6 percent. October sales of durable goods were down 4.2 percent from last month and were down 1.6 percent from a year ago. Sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 5.2 percent from last month and sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 4.5 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 4.1 percent from last month, but were up 6.5 percent from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 11.2 percent from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were ...
Economic Trends
Conference Board Employment Trends Index Falls in November
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined further in November. The index fell to 102.9, down 1.6% from the October revised figure of 104.5, and down over 13% from a year ago.
 
"Thus far, the U.S. economy has lost 1.9 million jobs and the declines in the ETI suggest job losses could very well surpass 3 million by mid 2009,"said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. "The continued deterioration in the labor market will exert significant downward pressure on wages."
 
The 16-month long decline in the Employment Trends Index is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons, said Levanon.
 
The Employment Trends ...
Economic Trends
Machine Tool Consumption Falls in October
October U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $273.85 million, according to the Association for Manufacturing Technology and the American Machine Tool Distributors'Association. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 43.4% from September and down 32.3% from the total of $404.36 million reported for October 2007. With a year-to-date total of $3,802.41 million, 2008 is up 8.2% compared with 2007.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

October orders for manufacturing technology declined sharply from September, although year-to-date figures are still up over 2007,"said Robert K. Simpson, AMT president. "While orders ...
Economic Trends
MAPI Outlook: Manufacturing Recession ‘Intensifies’ in 3Q
The U.S. manufacturing recession continued unabated, and in fact intensified in the third quarter, and is now part of a global downturn, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Industrial Outlook -Third Quarter 2008, a report that analyzes 27 major industries.
 
"There was a sudden and acute acceleration of the decline in the industrial sector in September and October,"said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI and author of the analysis. "The vicious circle of financial crisis, decline in wealth, consumer spending cuts, and job loss continues to spiral into a severe recession—certainly the worst since the early 1980s."
 
On an annual basis, MAPI forecasts a decline in the ...
Free
Distributors’ Greatest Asset: Local Knowledge of Markets
A recent article in McKinsey Quarterly defines one of the key values that distributors offer to manufacturers in terms of getting a product efficiently into markets that are fragmented, either geographically or by size of industry or company. It serves to remind us that the local knowledge of a distributor of its market and customers is its greatest asset.
 
The article looks at the high-tech industry -companies that make computing, telecom and networking equipment. They have in recent years sold directly to customers or to resellers online or through their sales forces and have become less dependent on traditional distribution partners. But as OEMs look for ...
Free
MDM Reader Survey: Distributors Shifting Strategy for an Uncertain 2009
From time to time before the end of 2008, we will be posting results and ideas from the recent MDM Reader Survey. Here's a look at respondents' strategic focus going into the new year.
 
In response to the MDM Reader Survey question, How have you changed your strategy for 2009 based on current economic trends?", many readers -but not all -said they were making a change. Many said they were going back to basics. Improving customer service and pricing were both mentioned. Others are leaning operations to ensure efficiency and cut unnecessary costs.
 
Many respondents mentioned either layoffs or a hiring freeze, in addition to delaying major capital expenses. One respondent plans to improve maintenance on existing equipment to make it last longer. Others said they ...
Economic Trends
Manufacturing Contracts in November
Manufacturing contracted in November for the fourth consecutive month, according to the latest Manufacturing Institute for Supply Management Report On Business.
 
When comparing November to October, the PMI indicates a continuing rapid rate of contraction in manufacturing, ISM reported. New orders have contracted for 12 consecutive months, and are at the lowest level since June 1980 when the index registered 24.2 percent.
 
Order backlogs have fallen to the lowest level since ISM began tracking the Backlog of Orders Index in January 1993. The Prices Index at 25.5 percent indicates that commodity prices continue to decline at a rapid rate. This is the lowest reading for the index since May 1949 when it registered 20.1 percent.
 
The two industries ...
Economic Trends
Durable Goods Orders Drop in October
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $12.7 billion or 6.2% to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This was the largest percentage decrease in new orders since October 2006 and followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.2% September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 4.4%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6%.
 
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, down three consecutive months, decreased $5.0 billion or 2.4% to $202.9 billion. This followed a 0.2% September decrease.
 
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down for the first time in 26 months, decreased $4.6 billion or 0.6% to $823.6 billion. This ...
Economic Trends
Preliminary Estimates: GDP Decreases 0.5% in 3Q
The GDP estimates released are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the decrease in real GDP was 0.3 percent.
 
The decrease in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and equipment and software that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending, private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
 
Most of the major components contributed to the downturn in real GDP growth in the third quarter. The largest ...
Economic Trends
Economy Top of Mind in 2009
With everything that has happened in the past few months, it is no surprise that the economy is on nearly everyone's mind, topping the list of concerns for manufacturers and distributors in the annual MDM Reader Survey. The collapse of financial markets and continued tightening of credit has added to the stress of everyday business.
 
It's enough for me to manage my own company but now I must analyze my bank's financials on an ongoing basis,"wrote one industrial distributor in the survey.
 
The next 12 to 18 months will be tough for many in the industry, says Brent Grover, CEO of Evergreen Consulting: "Demand is weak, margins are squeezed and most companies are faced with costly excess capacity."
 
The U.S. government hopes that recently passed ...
Research & Analytics
Distributor Touts VMI, Green Practices
Rick Peterson, president of All-West Fasteners, Seattle, WA, a regional industrial fastener and electronic hardware and components distributor, recently spoke at the Specialty Tools and Fasteners Distributors Association convention and trade show in Denver, CO. He is the group's outgoing president. The event drew nearly 4,500, down from the past two years but not far off 2005 attendance.
 
In his speech to the attendees, outgoing STAFDA President Rick Peterson touched on business practices his company has benefited from. One of those: Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). The goal of VMI, he says, is to make sure the customer's production line or job never shuts down due to a product shortage, and to minimize the total cost of supply.
 
Our VMI program has played a ...
Economic Trends
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for September 2008
The U.S. Census Bureau announced that September 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers'sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $396.2 billion, down 1.5 percent from the revised August level, but up 9.1 percent from the September 2007 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $2.5 billion or 0.6 percent. September sales of durable goods were down 1.0 percent from last month, but were up 3.5 percent from a year ago. Sales of nondurable goods were down 1.9 percent from last month, but were up 14.1 percent from last year. Sales of farm product raw materials were down 7.8 percent from last month and sales of chemicals and allied products were down 4.6 ...

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