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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

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This issue is packed with nine articles that span private equity’s role in distribution M&A; case studies on Wesco, Stellar Industrial Supply and Watsco; the return-to-office movement and what being a data-driven company looks like.

Market Insight Reports

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.
See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.

Case Studies

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.
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Praxair Distribution, Danbury, CT, a division of Praxair Canada Inc., has acquired the Canadian propane tank-exchange business of Blue Rhino, a Ferrellgas Partners L.P. company.

Under the agreement, Praxair acquired more than 900 propane tank-exchange display cages at retail locations across Canada. In addition, it will take over the contract to supply more than 300 retail gasoline stations belonging to Shell Canada Products with 20-pound propane tanks for their exchange program. In conjunction with this transaction, Praxair also signed a distributor agreement with Superior Tank Incorporated. Superior Tank will serve Praxair’s propane tank-exchange customers in the Atlantic Provinces.

Previously, Praxair provided propane …

Source: Statistics Canada
 
The Canada/U.S. exchange rate, as well as a notable decrease in the price of petroleum and coal products, both affected October’s manufacturing results. The change in the exchange rate had a strengthening effect for manufacturers who determine their prices in U.S. dollars. On the other hand, the price of petroleum and coal products dropped 13.5% in October, reducing the value of sales in that industry.

In constant dollars, manufacturing sales decreased 1.8% compared with September, bringing constant dollar sales to their lowest level since December 2001.

In October, 8 of 21 manufacturing industries, accounting for about 40% of total sales, posted decreases.

By Sector

Petroleum and coal …

Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in November with declines widespread across industries. The drop in output in September was revised down, and the rebound in October was revised up, in large part because both the decrease due to the September hurricanes and the subsequent partial recovery in October were larger than previously reported.

Manufacturing production dropped 1.4 percent in November despite the resumption of activity in the commercial aircraft industry after the resolution of a strike early in the month. The output of mines advanced 2.5 percent, primarily as a result of a further post-hurricane recovery in crude oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Taken together, the rebounds after the strike and the hurricanes added almost 1 percentage …

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 2.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. This decline followed decreases of 2.8 percent in October and 0.4 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods dropped 4.3 percent in November after falling 3.9 percent in the prior month, and the crude goods index declined 12.5 percent subsequent to an 18.6-percent decrease in October.
 
Among prices for finished goods, the index for energy goods fell 11.2 percent in November following a 12.8-percent drop in the preceding month. Prices for consumer foods were unchanged after declining 0.2 percent in October. By contrast, partially counteracting …

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian industries reduced their use of production capacity for a fifth straight quarter in the third quarter, with a majority of sectors, especially the automobile and construction sectors, contributing to the downturn.
 
Industries operated at 77.4% of their capacity, down from 77.7% in the second quarter. This was the rate’s lowest level since data were first kept in 1987. The rate in the third quarter of 2008 was 9.7 percentage points below its peak of 87.1% reached in the fourth quarter of 2000.
 
In the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, almost two-thirds of which consists of automobile and parts manufacturers, capacity …

Late Thursday, news broke that the U.S. Senate could not come to an agreement on a bailout loan package for the U.S. automakers. Now, hope for the Big Three lies almost entirely with the White House, where the president is considering using money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to keep Chrysler and GM from filing bankruptcy in a matter of weeks. Collapse of the auto industry could cost 2.5 million jobs in related industries, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com.
 
Automotive News reported that about $15 billion remains from the initial funding of TARP, exactly the amount the automakers say they need to stave of bankruptcy through the first quarter of 2009. (Read the full article from …

A number of manufacturers have announced layoffs in the past couple of weeks, citing weakness in the global automotive, industrial and construction markets.
 
The Stanley Works announced that it would be cutting 2,000 positions, or 10% of the current employee base. It will also be closing three manufacturing facilities and eliminating certain layers of management.”
 
In a news release, the company explained:
 
“During previous recessions dating back to the early 1970s, at times when the company had much higher percentage exposure to CDIY markets and customers than today, the company’s physical unit volume shipments have never declined by 7% or greater for two consecutive quarters. As previously reported, the company’s third quarter 2008 unit volume …

The U.S. automotive industry is struggling, and that means anyone in the automotive supply channel is likely struggling, as well. I recently spoke with distributors and manufacturers in the channel for an article on the impact they see down the line.
 
Mike Hamzey Jr., vice president and legal counsel for R.M. Wright Co. in Farmington Hills, MI, provided some advice when thinking about how to survive the crisis: Do what you have to do, but don’t alienate your customers. There will still be options when all is said and done; we’re not the only distributor in town.”
 
Keep the lines of communication open, not only internally but externally as well. Your customers are aware of economic conditions, and they’d prefer not to be surprised when you need to change terms of …

In MDM’s recent Reader Survey, we asked respondents to tell us about the trends they are seeing in markets here and abroad. As one respondent said: The world is one large business market, and you have to watch the entire global regularly -and not just the home market.”

In response to the survey question on how global issues are affecting their companies, some respondents said they weren’t seeing any impact. Other respondents said:
 
·         Security, compliance and new freight charges are making domestic products more affordable to produce and purchase.
·         Stronger dollar is improving the cost position on …

The slowdown in the auto industry is being felt well beyond the Big Three automakers currently appealing to Congress for help. Distributors and manufacturers that serve the automotive industry are struggling to keep their own businesses solvent; business for many of them has dropped precipitously over the past few months.
Jeff Stohr, president of Conveyer and Caster -Equipment for Industry in Cleveland, OH, says he began noticing a slowdown in automotive about five years ago, but the real turning point was Nov. 1 of this year.
 
Our business at that time was a fraction of what would be considered normal,”Stohr says. The distributor of material handling products, casters and conveyor systems has annual revenues of $10 million to $15 million, with the automotive …

In Part 2 of this interview with Motion Industries President and CEO Bill Stevens, he delves deeper into trends he is seeing in Motion’s core markets, as well as issues distributors face going into 2009.
MDM: What opportunities do you have in the current market?
 
Bill Stevens: The exciting thing to me is the MRO market in North America is still very large. As long as there are manufacturing plants, some of what we sell is needed and that is an encouraging thought. My greatest concern is the instability of our economy. Our customers are most definitely affected by the deepening economic downturn.
 
How many people thought companies like Lehman Brothers and others would go like they did as quickly as they did? I think we all thought they …

Canadian economists are saying the country will follow the U.S. into a recession. The severity of that recession -which is currently expected to be short -is dependent on how far the U.S. falls. Here’s an overview of the current situation.
While conditions in Canada no more than a few months ago pointed to a downturn, a recession was not necessarily yet in the cards thanks to strong domestic demand and high commodity prices.
But with the U.S. economy officially in a recession, Canada is facing the same prospect. Demand for its products in the U.S. continues to fall despite a weakening of the Canadian dollar -which in any other year might make Canadian products more attractive to U.S. companies.
 
What’s more, commodity prices and demand for raw materials have …

October 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers were $377.4 billion, down 4.1 percent from the revised September level, but up 2.7 percent from the October 2007 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September preliminary estimate was revised downward $2.4 billion or 0.6 percent. October sales of durable goods were down 4.2 percent from last month and were down 1.6 percent from a year ago. Sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 5.2 percent from last month and sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 4.5 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 4.1 percent from last month, but were up 6.5 percent from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 11.2 percent from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were …

National distributor sales of HVACR products for October were down 0.8% from a year ago, according to the Monthly Targeted and Regional Economic News for Distribution Strategies Report, produced by Heating, Airconditioning and Refirigeration Distributors International.
 
Among the eight HARDI regional reports, four in colder climates reported positive sales while four reported sales declines for the month. Over the previous twelve months, U.S. and Canadian wholesale sales were collectively up +0.2%.
 
Canada experienced the best performance for October with sales up 9.4%, while the Western region reported the poorest performance, down 11.1%. Only the Midwest region reported a decline in inventory level; all others indicated inventories were up. …

Like so many other companies in the current economy, 3M is finding itself in a position of making difficult decisions in order to survive. Over the past week, the company has announced that it would be laying off 2,300 workers before the end of the fourth quarter. Pay increases have already been deferred for many, and temporary workers and overtime have been eliminated. CEO George Buckley told analysts in a recent 2009 earnings outlook presentation that more cuts will be made if necessary.
 
But, according to Buckley, survival isn’t enough. The changes being made at the company are all being made with the perspective that they will strengthen the company for when the economy returns to more sane”conditions. “This is the time for prudence, but it’s not the time for …

October 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers were $377.4 billion, down 4.1% from the revised September level, but up 2.7% from the October 2007 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The September preliminary estimate was revised downward $2.4 billion or 0.6%.
October sales of durable goods were down 4.2% from last month and were down 1.6% from a year ago. Sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 5.2% from last month and sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 4.5%. Sales of nondurable goods were down 4.1% from last month, but were up 6.5% from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 11.2% from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were down 6.1%.
Total inventories of merchant wholesalers …

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined further in November. The index fell to 102.9, down 1.6% from the October revised figure of 104.5, and down over 13% from a year ago.
 
“Thus far, the U.S. economy has lost 1.9 million jobs and the declines in the ETI suggest job losses could very well surpass 3 million by mid 2009,”said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. “The continued deterioration in the labor market will exert significant downward pressure on wages.”
 
The 16-month long decline in the Employment Trends Index is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons, said Levanon.
 
The Employment Trends …

October U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $273.85 million, according to the Association for Manufacturing Technology and the American Machine Tool Distributors’Association. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 43.4% from September and down 32.3% from the total of $404.36 million reported for October 2007. With a year-to-date total of $3,802.41 million, 2008 is up 8.2% compared with 2007.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

October orders for manufacturing technology declined sharply from September, although year-to-date figures are still up over 2007,”said Robert K. Simpson, AMT president. “While orders …

The U.S. manufacturing recession continued unabated, and in fact intensified in the third quarter, and is now part of a global downturn, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Industrial Outlook -Third Quarter 2008, a report that analyzes 27 major industries.
 
“There was a sudden and acute acceleration of the decline in the industrial sector in September and October,”said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI and author of the analysis. “The vicious circle of financial crisis, decline in wealth, consumer spending cuts, and job loss continues to spiral into a severe recession—certainly the worst since the early 1980s.”
 
On an annual basis, MAPI forecasts a decline in the …

A recent article in McKinsey Quarterly defines one of the key values that distributors offer to manufacturers in terms of getting a product efficiently into markets that are fragmented, either geographically or by size of industry or company. It serves to remind us that the local knowledge of a distributor of its market and customers is its greatest asset.
 
The article looks at the high-tech industry -companies that make computing, telecom and networking equipment. They have in recent years sold directly to customers or to resellers online or through their sales forces and have become less dependent on traditional distribution partners. But as OEMs look for …

From time to time before the end of 2008, we will be posting results and ideas from the recent MDM Reader Survey. Here’s a look at respondents’ strategic focus going into the new year.
 
In response to the MDM Reader Survey question, How have you changed your strategy for 2009 based on current economic trends?”, many readers -but not all -said they were making a change. Many said they were going back to basics. Improving customer service and pricing were both mentioned. Others are leaning operations to ensure efficiency and cut unnecessary costs.
 
Many respondents mentioned either layoffs or a hiring freeze, in addition to delaying major capital expenses. One respondent plans to improve maintenance on existing equipment to make it last longer. Others said they …

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