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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

It provides a thorough look at the state of the U.S. wholesale distribution economy today and what factors are influencing underlying demand.
Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

Premium Monthly

This issue includes seven articles that span Stellar Industrial’s buy-and-build technology approach; what to know before expanding across state lines; corporate DEI pushback; Ferguson’s digital strategy; and more.

Market Insight Reports

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.
See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.

Case Studies

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.

Mike Marks of Indian River Consulting Group says distributors need to break out of the traditional mold of doing business and think differently about how to stand out in an increasingly busy market. In today’s business climate, distributors must do more to maintain their edge.

This is an exclusive summary of the recent MDM Webcast, What Distributor Innovation Looks Like in 2013: Rethinking Your Business Model. The program is available on-demand or on DVD at www.mdm.com/innovation.

Market share incumbents held hostage to the old ways of doing things are losing ground to “rule-breakers,” innovative market share challengers with a fresh perspective, according to Indian River Consulting Group’s Mike Marks in the recent MDM Webcast, What Distributor Innovation Looks Like in 2013: Rethinking Your Business Model.

History shows us that incremental improvements to the same business model can lead to success. The successful automotive company Porsche, for example, has focused on continuous product development along the same platform for years. And Marks says …

This report was formerly called the Inflation by Commodity Group Report.

This report is researched and produced by MDM editors. View the Third Quarter 2012 pricing trends report here.

These product groups provide a snapshot of inflation trends based on the Producer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fourth quarter 2011 pricing levels are compared with fourth quarter 2012, and third quarter 2012 with third quarter 2012. Full-year 2011 pricing levels are compared with full-year 2012.

To view this report, log-in and click on Download pdf below the product listing.

Not a subscriber? Subscribe today for immediate access. Or purchase this report.

Industrial

  • Abrasives
  • Adhesives & Sealants
  • Metal Cutting Machine Tools
  • Metal Forming Machine Tools
  • Pumps, Compressors, & Eqmt
  • Ind. Material Handling Eqmt
  • Rubber & Plastic Hose
  • Rubber & Plastic Belts & Belting
  • Ind. Rubber Products, nec
  • Metal Valves (not fluid power)
  • Personal Safety Equipment & Clothing
  • Steel Mill Products

Construction

  • Softwood Lumber
  • Hardwood Lumber
  • General Millwork
  • Gypsum Products
  • Hardboard, Particlebd, Fiberbd
  • Plywood
  • Plastic Construction Products
  • Wood Ties, Siding, Shingles,
  • Shakes

Electrical

  • Electrical Machinery & Eqmt
  • Electronic Components & Accs
  • Integrating and Measuring Instruments
  • Motors & Generators
  • Wiring Devices
  • Transformers & Power Regulators
  • Switchgear, Switchboard, etc., Eqmt
  • Communications & Related Eqmt
  • Electric Lamp Bulbs & Parts

Other Related Electrical

  • Lighting Fixtures
  • Nonferrous Wire & Cable
  • Fabricated Ferrous Wire & Cable

Power Transmission/Bearing

  • Mechanical Power Transmission Eqmt
  • Ball & Roller Bearings
  • Plain Bearings & Bushings
  • Speed Changers, Drives & Gears

Fluid Power

  • Fluid Power Eqmt
  • Fluid Power Valves
  • Fluid Power Hose/ Tube Fittings
  • Fluid Power Pumps & Parts
  • Fluid Power Actuators/ Accum/ Cylinders

Plastics

  • Plastic Resins & Materials
  • Plastic Products (Overall)

Fasteners

  • Nuts, Bolts, Screws, Rivets, Washers (overall)
  • Aircraft Fasteners
  • Externally Threaded Fasteners
  • Internally Threaded Fasteners
  • Nonthreaded Metal Fasteners

Hardware

  • Hardware (overall)
  • Builders’ Hardware

Tools

  • Hand & Edge Tools
  • Power-Driven Hand Tools
  • Tools, Dies, Jigs, Molds, Fixtures
  • Cutting Tools & Accs (overall)
  • Precision Measuring Tools
  • Small Cutting Tools

Gases/Welding

  • Industrial Gases
  • Welding Machinery/ Equipment

Paper

  • Pulp, Paper & Allied Products (overall)
  • Sanitary Paper Products
  • Boxes
  • Packaging Products from Plastic

HVACR/Plumbing

  • Air Cond. & Refrigeration Eqmt
  • Heating Eqmt
  • Plumbing Fixtures & Fittings

To view this report, log-in and click on Download pdf below the product listing.

Not a subscriber? Subscribe today for immediate access.


The New York Times reported today that some of the country's biggest buyout firms have approached Home Depot CEO Frank Blake - put in place after Robert Nardelli resigned&nbsp ; - with proposals to buy $12 billion HD Supply.


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The Times says analysts expect HD could sell the fast-growing division for $9 billion.


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The article goes on to discuss HD Supply's profit margins as slimmer than retail, and HD's need to find a way to grow the retail side of the company. Synergies between wholesale and retail have yet to be realized, according to the piece.


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Home Depot announced Monday that it was considering strategic alternatives for HD Supply, including a possible sale, spin off or initial public offering.

New ...

Ferguson has acquired Grif-Fab Corporation, a distributor and fabricator of fire protection systems with three locations in Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. In the year ended Nov. 30, 2006, Grif-Fab had revenue of $28.3 million.


UK-based Wolseley plc, Ferguson's parent company, has recently made three other bolt-on acquisitions in addition to the Grif-Fab buy. The four in total will add 29 million pounds, or $37.7 million, to annual revenues.


Since Aug. 1, 2006, Wolseley has made 33 acquisitions in Europe and North America totaling 342 million pounds, or $458 million.


More Breaking ...


The bidding war between The Carlyle Group and Building Materials Corporation of America for ElkCorp has ended, with The Carlyle Group dropping its offer for the roofing and building products manufacturer.


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An affiliate of Building Materials Corporation of America (BMCA), a roofing manufacturer in North America, has agreed to buy ElkCorp for $43.50 a share in cash, or about $1.12 billion, including the assumption of about $173 million in debt.


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The offer represents a 73% premium over ElkCorp's closing share price on Nov. 3, 2006, the last trading day before ElkCorp announced it was considering strategic alternatives.


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ElkCorp terminated its previous merger agreement with Carlyle.


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BMCA, ...

Strategic Distribution will soon shed the costs of public ownership when it sells to Platinum Equity. The two-year decision-making process was explained for shareholders in an SEC filing last month. MDM distills the details in this article.


Competitive pressures, a history of operating losses, limited stock liquidity and trading volume, and the cost of complying with Sarbanes-Oxley all played a part in leading Strategic Distribution to give up the public life and agree to sell to Platinum Equity for $10 a share, or $30 million, last month.


An SEC filing in late January details Strategic's decision to go private. In addition to selling the company, management also considered a liquidation of Strategic's assets.


Several suitors took up ...

Hardware and renovation products distributor and retailer RONA, Boucherville, Quebec, has acquired Noble Trade Inc., a plumbing and heating supply wholesaler in Ontario with annual sales of about C$150 million. The purchase price was close to 7X EBITDA, RONA executives said in a conference call.


Noble Trade was created in 1998 with the merger of Trade Plumbing Supplies and Noble Plumbing Supplies. The company has posted average annual sales increases of 27 percent since 1998. Most of that growth was organic, with either new stores or sales growth at existing stores, said Noble President Michael Storfer.


Storfer said Noble sold to RONA because it had resources it needed to grow the business. We thought they were the most entrepreneurial, and would allow us to continue to ...

A&nbsp ; Purdue University research project by Steve Epner is trying to understand key reasons why distributors adopt technology. Please take this brief survey now -- less than five minutes to complete. Your participation is completely confidential and makes a difference in the quality of the results. Only summary data will be published. Watch MDM for results in June! Please invite other distributors you know to participate by using the “Forward this e-mail link above. The more responses we have, the more we can learn. Thank you!

Take the survey ...

U.S. Electrical Services, LLC, Exton, PA, has agreed to buy the electrical supply business of Max Goldman, Inc.


Max Goldman, Inc., New Rochelle, NY, has maintained a presence in the Westchester County market for more than 100 years, supplying electrical supplies and lighting fixtures.&nbsp ;


US Electrical Services, LLC a Delaware limited liability company with principal offices of operation in Exton, PA., a wholesaler-distributor of electrical products and related services.


Related Links:
US Electrical Services to Buy Hampden/Zimmerman Electric Supply
US Electrical ...

Hardware and renovation products distributor and retailer RONA, Boucherville, Quebec, has acquired Noble Trade Inc., a plumbing and heating supply wholesaler in Ontario with annual sales of about C$150 million. The purchase price was close to 7X EBITDA, RONA executives said in a conference call.


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Noble Trade was created in 1998 with the merger of Trade Plumbing Supplies and Noble Plumbing Supplies. The company has posted average annual sales increases of 27% since 1998. Most of that growth was organic, with either new stores or sales growth at existing stores, said Noble President Michael Storfer.


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Storfer said Noble sold to RONA because it ...

Code Hennessy & Simmons LLC, Chicago, IL, has made an equity investment in Mainline Supply Company, Charlotte, NC, a distributor of underground infrastructure products in the Southeast.


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Mainline specializes in underground water, sewer and drainage utility products that transmit potable and non-potable water to treatment plants, storage towers and pumping stations. The customer base includes municipalities, developers and utility contractors in residential, commercial and municipal construction projects.


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Mainline has 1,800 customers in 16 branches in seven states in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.


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We are poised for continued growth through geographic expansion, new product introductions and ...

Bunzl plc has acquired the business of Tec Products Co. Inc., a private company based in New Jersey. Tec Products is a supplier of jan/san and associated products through redistributors. Revenue in the year ended Dec. 31, 2006, is estimated at $14 million.


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Bunzl has also purchased Westgate Sales Corporation and Westgate Canada Ltd., also based in New Jersey with facilities in Ontario and Alberta, Canada. Westgate supplies personal protection equipment through redistributors in the eastern U.S. and Canada. Revenue in the year ended Dec. 31, 2006, is estimated at US$18 million.


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Tec Products expands our jan/san business in the northeast region of the U.S. while Westgate adds further scale and geographical coverage to our personal ...

3M, St. Paul, MN, has acquired the Rite-Lok global industrial adhesives product line from Chemence Inc., a specialty chemical company that manufactures consumer and industrial adhesives.


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The line includes anaerobic threadlockers, retaining compounds, gasket makers, thread sealants, structural adhesives, and specialty cyanoacrylate instant adhesives for industrial use such as metal bonding, plastics and rubber. The line also includes high-temperature, low-odor industrial adhesives and rubber-toughened flexible adhesives.


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More Breaking ...

Danaher Corporation, Washington, D.C., reported sales for 2006 were $9.5 billion compared to $7.98 billion in 2005, an increase of 20%. Profit was $1.1 billion for fiscal 2006, up 25% over last year.


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Sales in the fourth quarter was $2.6 billion, an increase of 17.5% from fourth quarter 2005. Profit for the fourth quarter was $323.7 million, a 28.5% increase.


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The company also announced it has expanded its reporting to four segments. The four segments are Medical Technologies, Professional Instrumentation, Industrial Technologies and Tools and Components. The Medical Technologies business, previously included within the Professional Instrumentation segment, will now stand alone as its own reporting segment. Professional ...

Praxair Distribution, Inc., Danbury, CT, a subsidiary of Praxair, Inc., has agreed to buy Mittler Supply Inc., distributor of industrial, medical, specialty gases and related welding equipment and supplies, operating in Indiana, Michigan and Illinois. Mittler had sales of $73 million in 2006 and has 210 employees.


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Founded in 1946, Mittler operates a cylinder-gas fill plant, specialty-gas laboratory and a centralized warehouse for distribution of welding equipment and supplies at its headquarters located in South Bend, IN. The firm also operates several satellite cylinder-gas fill plants and 18 retail sales and distribution locations in the three states.


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“The addition of Mittler Supply to our existing network in the Great Lakes ...

Illinois Tool Works Inc. has sold its mechanical roofing fastener business for $26 million to OMG Inc., a subsidiary of Handy & Harman.


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The business develops and manufactures fastening systems for the commercial roofing industry.



OMG is a manufacturer of mechanical fasteners, accessories and components and building products for the commercial and residential construction industry.


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More Breaking ...

ElkCorp, Dallas, TX, manufacturer of roofing and building products, has received another offer to purchase all of ElkCorp's outstanding shares for $42 a share by an affiliate of Building Materials Corporation of America.


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The special committee and board of directors, consistent with its recently announced merger agreement with The Carlyle Group, will review the offer and make a recommendation to ElkCorp's shareholders.


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On January 16, 2007, ElkCorp announced that it has entered into an amended merger agreement with Carlyle, under which Carlyle commenced an offer to acquire all of ElkCorp's outstanding shares for $40.50 per share. The revised Carlyle tender offer represents a $2.50 increase over the $38.00 price per share provided in the ...

Jackson, MS-based Stuart C. Irby Co., a subsidiary of Sonepar USA, has acquired Burmeister Electric Company, Minneapolis, MN, and High Voltage Testing Laboratories, Fargo, ND.


Burmeister was established in 1919 to serve utility companies in the Upper Midwest.


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Burmeister is a full-line stocking distributor and manufacturers' agent offering products to the electric utilities for transmission and distribution requirements.=


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HVTL is a fully certified testing laboratory offering high voltage testing services and sales of PPE (personal protective equipment) safety products, used by electric utility lineman and field service personnel in the contractor and industrial markets.


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Burmeister will continue to ...

SKF has acquired the Preventive Maintenance Company Inc., Elk Grove Village, IL. PMCI has 70 employees with annual sales of about $10 million.


PMCI is in Predictive Maintenance services for industrial customers in the pulp and paper, metals, food, automotive and other industries. The PMCI acquisition strengthens SKF in reliability services, condition monitoring products and maintenance strategies.


The integration of PMCI into the SKF Group has just started.

Related Links:
SKF Group Sales Grow 8.3% in First Half
SKF to Buy Austrian Industrial Seals Co.

...


Apollo Management, which also recently invested in Rexnord, has made an investment in Bradco Supply Corp., a roofing supply distributor based in Avenel, NJ. Bradco has more than 150 branches in the U.S.


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We are happy for the relationship with Apollo, said founder Barry Segal. In a short period of time we have become comfortable with the chemistry and we see this as a great opportunity to significantly grow the company."


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Apollo is a private equity, debt and capital markets investor with offices in New York, London and Los Angeles.


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More Breaking ...

Ferguson has acquired Cal-Steam Supply Inc., a distributor of plumbing products with 10 locations in the San Francisco Bay area. Cal-Steam had sales of $148.6 million in the year ended Dec. 31, 2005.


Ferguson's parent company, Wolseley, says the acquisition will benefit from its new Stockton, CA, distribution center to be completed later this year.


Ferguson has also acquired Guntersville Fabrication and Sprinkler Co. Inc. and Guntersville Pipe and Supply. Guntersville distributors and fabricates fire protection systems with three locations in the Southeast. It serves Ohio, Florida, Georgia and Louisiana.


Guntersville had sales of $31.5 million in the year ended Oct. 31, 2006.

Related Links:
<A ...

According to Harvard Professor John Kotter, a sense of urgency is a desire to act on critical issues now - making real progress every day on issues that are central to an organization's success. And when an economic crisis hits (or any crisis for that matter), a sense of urgency in a business becomes all that more important if you want to come out of that crisis ahead of where you started.
 
Unfortunately, Kotter says the recession has created very little true urgency. Why?
 
He said: "People don't understand what true urgency is. The economic situation is creating a lot of false urgency, which is this anxiety-driven, anger-driven frenzy of activity where we all run in circles figuring out what to do. It is activity-focused not ...
Stop me if you've heard this one: A manufacturer, a distributor and a logistics coordinator are making a deal. The manufacturer says to the distributor, How do you want that delivered? The distributor says, "Overnight it to me on Tuesday; I need it Wednesday." Meanwhile, the logistics coordinator mutters under his breath about how much money could have been saved by sending it LTL Monday night.
 
Sound familiar? The first part might, but what about the second? Did you know there was another option that could meet your needs and save you money?
 
For a recent article, three different players - Dan Muller of The Timken Company (the manufacturer), Doug Savage of Bearing Service Inc. (the distributor), and Don Louis of CoLinx (the ...
As the U.S. remains the epicenter of the global economic crisis, a shell-shocked world begins a new year with a somber outlook, according to a new report from MAPI.


In the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: First Quarter 2009 Through Fourth Quarter 2009, economist Cliff Waldman writes that data and forecasts through the end of 2008 reveal the bleakest global outlook in the post World War II era.

The depth of the U.S. economic downturn and financial disruptions which have spread globally have created a nearly synchronized slump in industrialized country output, Waldman said. "In addition, recent data reveal an eroding picture for the emerging world, in sharp contrast to the mixed prospects that were expected ...
Hagemeyer North America, Charleston, SC, has launched its 2009-2010 Electrical MRO catalog. The 642-page catalog is the first full-line Electrical MRO products catalog produced by Hagemeyer NA and features 12,845 electrical products from more than 100 Hagemeyer suppliers.
 
Hagemeyer North America recognized a need for a catalog aimed specifically at the electrical MRO industry, says Brad Pulver, senior vice president, Product Strategy and Marketing. "Our new catalog showcases products and services that satisfy the unique needs of our customers in this market. By compiling this assortment of products from industry-leading manufacturers, and supporting it with inventory investments and attractive pricing, we have created a one-stop-shop for the key ...
M&A activity fell significantly in November, reflecting the paralyzed credit markets and an accelerating global recession, according to a report from Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. Global M&A deal value fell 68.2% month-over-month, while U.S. deal value fell 86.1%.
 
Year-to-date, global transactions were down 15.8%, and dollar volume is down 38.4% from the year-ago period. Global middle-market transactions represented 40.4% of total year-to-date deal count.
 
Year-to-date, U.S. transactions are down 22.8% from the year-ago period, and dollar volume was down 38.3%.
 
Strategic buyers are now dominating the M&A landscape, representing 83% of total global deal volume. According to Baird, well-capitalized strategics are taking advantage of ...
National HVACR distributor sales for the month of November 2008 were down 14.1% from a year ago, according to the Monthly Targeted and Regional Economic News for Distribution Strategies Report produced by Heating, Airconditioning and Refrigeration Distributors International.
 
All eight HARDI regional reports indicated negative performance in November. Over the previous twelve months, U.S. and Canadian wholesale sales were collectively even with 2007.
 
The Western region reported the poorest performance with a sales decline of 31%. The West region was also the only region to report that inventories were down when compared to same month last year. Median Days Sales Outstanding stood at 48.8 days up a half -day from October ...
November U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $185.57 million, according to the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association and the Association for Manufacturing Technology. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 34.7% from October and down 51.4% from the total of $381.76 million reported for November 2007. With a year-to-date total of $4,004.31 million, 2008 is up 2.8% compared with 2007.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

The November numbers demonstrate the much publicized slowdown in manufacturing, said Peter Borden, AMTDA president. "After three years of averaging over 2,000 ...

Harvard Business School Professor John Kotter recently spoke with MDM Editor Lindsay Young about his new book, A Sense of Urgency. Kotter has researched and written a series of leading books on change management including Our Iceberg is Melting, a tale of business change told in fable form. Kotter says one of the biggest mistakes organizations make when pursuing change is not creating a high enough sense of urgency among employees to spark the needed shift in direction. The current economic situation has exasperated change efforts in many companies.

As Kotter says in his latest book, A Sense of Urgency: At the beginning of any effort to make changes of any magnitude, if a sense of urgency is not high enough, and complacency is not low enough, ...

The above is shaping up to be the theme for 2009. It's also the message so far from a strong response to a profitability survey MDM is conducting (see end of article for link if you haven't filled it out). We will have a full survey report (with participants' getting the first executive summary) in February, but I'd like to share a few early indicators, coupled with feedback on what we're hearing from distributors.


This first full week of 2009 brought more bad news for manufacturing globally. In the U.S., wage and hiring freezes are starting to go into effect for 2009. Many distributors are targeting cost reduction of 5-10 percent this year, including headcount, to match anticipated revenue drops. With shaky indicators starting off the year, ...

Distributors can improve shipping predictability and decrease costs by reevaluating how they receive product from their suppliers. This article looks at how LTL is a little-considered option but can cost half that of parcel delivery and a third of overnight air deliveries.

Beyond renegotiating existing contracts, many wholesale distribution executives don't consider changes that can be made to shipping procedures to save money and improve cash flow.

It's like this is the way we've been doing it for so long, we don't think that there is another way, says Doug Savage, president of Bearing Service Inc., Livonia, MI.

But reevaluating shipping options and processes to get product from the manufacturer to the distributor can lead ...

Despite the credit crunch and tough times, a company with the capital may want to take advantage of conditions to make strategic acquisitions. Here's a look at best practices in acquisitions to ensure success in this strategy.
While the current economic environment and financial market meltdown have most business owners focused on conserving cash, controlling/reducing headcount and holding on for dear life, most of the wealthiest individuals in the world (including Mr. Buffet) will likely tell you that it is in these uncertain times that fortunes are made.
Our belief is that this is true for distribution and industrial businesses that have the capital and courage to pursue strategic acquisitions in 2009. Valuations have meaningfully decreased and most of the ...
November 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers were $349.2 billion, down 7.1 percent from the revised October level and were down 7.6 percent from November 2007, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The October preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.3 billion or 0.4 percent. November sales of durable goods were down 6.1 percent from last month and were down 9.4 percent from a year ago.

Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 10.6 percent and sales of electrical and electronic goods were down 8.8 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 7.9 percent from last month and were down 6.1 percent from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 25.1 percent from last month and sales of chemicals and allied ...
The industrial product group listed here - Saw Blades - represented a market in 2008 of $1.36 billion, according to estimates by Industrial Market Information, Minneapolis. These charts show the top ten industries, by SIC code, consuming these products; and the 2008 end-user consumption of these groups sorted by the nine government market ...
Source: Statistics Canada

Canadian contractors took out $4.8 billion in building permits in November, down 11.8% from October, the result of widespread declines in both residential and non-residential sectors. It was the third double-digit decrease in four months.
 
Intentions fell in all provinces except Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia.
 
November's level, the lowest since February 2007, was 22.6% below last year's monthly average.
The value of non-residential permits fell 15.2% to $2.1 billion, the second consecutive monthly decrease. This drop occurred mainly as a result of declines in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.
 
In the residential sector, the value of building permits declined ...
November 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $349.2 billion, down 7.1 percent from the revised October level and were down 7.6 percent from the November 2007 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The October preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.3 billion or 0.4 percent. November sales of durable goods were down 6.1 percent from last month and were down 9.4 percent from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 10.6 percent and sales of electrical and electronic goods were down 8.8 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 7.9 percent from last ...

One commentator on the Harvard Biz Twitter feed recently wrote: Downturns are as much about psychology as about GNP, about withering confidence as about shrinking employment. (See the feed here.) It may be hard to grasp the idea that some of what is happening may be controllable in the current market - especially with today's unemployment jumping to 7.2%. But there is certainly no shortage of advice on managing through a downturn out there - and every author says there are ways to seize on opportunities despite the tough times.
 
Another article on the topic popped up this week in BusinessWeek, titled

We've heard before that the recession started earlier than anybody had thought. Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI released the following today:
 
A Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI report argues that the current U.S. economic recession began as early as January 2008 rather than in the widely presumed latter stages of 2008.
 
In The 2008-2009 Recession Began One Year Ago,Chief Economist Daniel J. Meckstroth provided four data points to support MAPI's contention that the recession started in January 2008 and that abrupt deterioration from the credit crunch in September 2008 merely dealt a final body blow" to economic ...
New orders for manufactured goods in November, down four consecutive months, decreased $18.7 billion or 4.6% to $384.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported in the preliminary report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders. This followed a 6% October decrease.

Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 4.2%. Shipments, also down four consecutive months, decreased $22.1 billion or 5.3% to $393.8 billion. This was the largest percent decrease since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.6% October decrease. Unfilled orders, down two consecutive months, decreased $5.3 billion or 0.6% to $815.4 billion. This followed a 0.9% October decrease.
 
The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.82, up from 5.69 in October. ...
U.S. construction spending in November 2008 was $1,078.4 billion, 0.6% below the revised October estimate. November is 3.3% below November 2007. Year-to-date, construction spending is $998.4 billion, 5.3% below the same period in 2007, according to the U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
 
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $756.4 billion, 1.5% below the revised October estimate. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $328.3 billion in November, 4.2% below October. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $428.2 billion in November, 0.7% above October.
 
In November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending ...
Creighton University's Mid-America Business Conditions Index was at a record low of 33.0 for December. The report, found here, is based on a survey of supply managers in the region. An index of 50 is considered growth-neutral."

The survey showed job losses for the eleventh time in the past 12 months. Inflation has turned to deflation, and export orders have plunged. North Dakota and Oklahoma are the only states in the region where leading economic indicators are above "growth-neutral."
 
A Creighton economics professor and the head of the university's Economic Forecasting Group says that ...

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