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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

It provides a thorough look at the state of the U.S. wholesale distribution economy today and what factors are influencing underlying demand.
Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

Premium Monthly

This issue includes seven articles that span Stellar Industrial’s buy-and-build technology approach; what to know before expanding across state lines; corporate DEI pushback; Ferguson’s digital strategy; and more.

Market Insight Reports

Find a wealth of data and analysis extracted from the 3Q24 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey, including trending charts and figures for revenue and expectations, plus plenty of interesting commentary.
See our top Premium M&A articles from July-September 2024, including QXO’s rollout plans; Sonepar’s Purchase of Summit Electric; What to know before expanding across state lines; and the latest EBITDA trading multiples.

Case Studies

This case study explores the plumbing, HVACR, PVF and industrial supplies distributor’s past decade of growth through diversification, private branding and increased customer loyalty.
Klein Cutlery Inc., an affiliate of hand tool manufacturer Klein Tools, Lincolnshire, IL, has acquired Heritage Cutlery, Bolivar, NY, from Rogers, Lunt and Bowlen Company.
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The acquisition includes the brand names Heritage and C-Mon.
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Heritage Cutlery is a manufacturer of hot-forged scissors and shears for a wide variety of markets including electrical and industrial. The company employs about 55 people at its 18,000-square-foot facility. Heritage has about 900 distributors in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Europe.
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The new company will operate under the name Klein Cutlery LLC. No changes in management are ...
Flowserve Corp., Dallas, TX, a global supplier of fluid motion and control products and services, has agreed to sell certain product distribution assets of its non-core instrumentation and positioner facility in Karlstad, Sweden, to Indutrade.
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The Karlstad facility provides instrumentation products and systems including gas analyzers, I/O devices, recorders, radiation density meters and other non-core products used for measurement and control of flow processes in industries such as power, paper and machinery.
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Under the terms of the agreement, Indutrade will continue to sell Flowserve's products and services, which should provide Flowserve wider access to sales channels in the region.
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This agreement enables Flowserve to strengthen its focus ...
Actuant Corp., Milwaukee, WI, has acquired Templeton, Kenly & Co, Inc., Broadview, IL, for $48 million in cash.
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TK produces hydraulic pumps and tools, mechanical jacks, wrenches, and actuators. Its products are sold under brand names including Simplex, Uni-Lift, and Pow'r-Riser. TK generated $33 million in sales in the last year, and has 120 employees.
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TK will operate within Actuant's Industrial Segment, which includes Enerpac.
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&nbsp ; TK's leading positions in the mechanical jack product line and the railroad end market represent attractive market extensions for Actuant, and we are excited about the prospects for utilizing our global distribution network to accelerate the sales of these products. In addition, TK's hydraulic pumps and tools ...
BusinessWeek just ran a couple of articles on Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, the private equity firm that joined with Bain Capital and the Carlyle Group to buy HD Supply. Due to a tightening in the credit markets, the trio will pay $8.5 billion instead of the original $10.3 billion price for the Home Depot wholesale unit.
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The first BW article was aptly titled, Private Equity's White-Knuckle Deal," and the other focuses on CD & R's chairman Joseph L. Rice III, 75, who discusses how his firm years ago fell into the trap of buying into industries it did not understand and "embraced debt too enthusiastically." (Read article)
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"White-Knuckle Deal" recounts in ...
Stock Building Supply has acquired ProSource Building Supply Ltd, Houston, TX, a construction services business supplying commercial doors, trim, hardwood, related specialty products and installation services.
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In the year ended Dec. 31, 2006, ProSource had revenue of $17.2 million. The acquisition is in line with Stock's goal of expanding in the commercial and industrial markets.
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Stock Building Supply is a company of Wolseley plc, a global distributor of plumbing and heating products as well as building materials. Wolseley announced five bolt-on acquisitions this month, including two by Ferguson and two in Europe. These acquisitions are expected to add 110 million pounds to total ...
Ferguson has acquired Western Air Systems & Controls Inc., an exclusive Trane HVAC distributor for the states of California and Nevada with three facilities. In the year ended Dec. 31, 2006, Western Air had revenue of $59.6 million.
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Ferguson has also acquired Davidson Pipe Company Inc., a pipes, valves and fittings distributor in the New York metropolitan market. In the year ended Sept. 30, 2006, Davidson had revenue of $125.8 million.
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Ferguson is a company of Wolseley plc, a global distributor of plumbing and heating products as well as building materials. Wolseley announced five bolt-on acquisitions this month, including one by Stock Building Supply and two in Europe. These acquisitions are expected to add 110 million pounds&nbsp ; to total ...
London-based global electronics distributor Premier Farnell saw second-quarter sales growth of 3%, despite a more challenging North American market.


Revenue was 178.9 pounds (US$363.3 million) in the second quarter and 362.5 million pounds (US$736M) in the first half.

Total earnings per share were up 13% in the first half.

We continue to make good progress with the rigorous implementation of our business strategy and are especially pleased with the 30% increase in Web sales in the quarter and our success in winning major new franchises," CEO Harriet Green said.

"While market conditions in North America in the second quarter were rather more challenging than in the first quarter, we delivered growth across all divisions with double-digit growth in ...
Air Liquide, Houston, TX, has acquired Team One Technologies Inc., an independent producer and distributor of medical and specialty gases in Romeoville, IL.
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Air Liquide Healthcare America will own and operate the medical and specialty gas facility to support its strong growth initiatives in the Midwest medical gas market.
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The newly acquired facility will also supply Air Liquide's non-medical packaged and specialty gas business, with an additional geographic base for direct and distributor sales.
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The acquisition strengthens Air Liquide Healthcare America's position as a major supplier in the greater Chicago area, a region that represents about 6 percent of the overall U.S. medical gases ...
Tight credit markets are affecting sizable deals in progress and may dampen historically high valuations. But it's unclear whether the current state of credit will curb interest in distribution by financial buyers.
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Firms making sizable acquisitions are now having a tough time getting the loans they need to pay the agreed-upon purchase price.
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As a result, several billion-dollar-plus deals are being renegotiated, including the recent HD Supply deal. The trio of private equity firms buying the $12 billion unit is now paying $8.5 billion, instead of the original price, $10.3 billion.
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Seemingly overnight, banks have find it tougher to spread the risk of a loan largely due to a drop in interest from outside investors in buying some of that ...
More frequently, employers are asking or requiring employees to sign non-competition agreements -employment contracts that restrict the rights of employees to set up shop across the street, or take your trade secrets with them when joining a rival.
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After training and grooming a green employee into a highly productive and valuable member of the team, employers are frequently frustrated to learn that the employee is now their chief competitor.
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Of course, it's a free country and people are allowed to make a living any honest way they can. Balancing those two competing philosophies is what judges are often called upon to do.
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If you are considering establishing a non-competition agreement for your employees, here are 10 things you should ...
Distributors may be better protected from strict liability actions if a Supreme Court case in Ohio is overturned.


The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors is one of nine organizations that filed a friend of the court" brief in the Supreme Court of Ohio in a case focused on the retroactive application of the doctrine of strict liability in product liability actions brought against non-manufacturer product sellers, including wholesalers, distributors and retailers.

Strict liability is based on the condition of a manufacturer's product rather than the conduct of the defendant.

According to NAW President Dirk Van Dongen, the association views DiCenzo as a "major, even seminal case that carries with it profound legal and economic ramifications for ...
3M, St. Paul, MN, has agreed to acquire Venture Tape Corp., a supplier of pressure sensitive adhesive tapes based in Rockland, MA.
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Venture Tape manufactures tapes used in construction, oil and gas, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), electronics, aerospace, marine and appliance markets. It also provides specialty industrial tapes complementary to 3M's specialty tape product line used in splicing, automotive and automotive aftermarket applications.
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This acquisition broadens our pressure sensitive adhesive tape platform, brings new channels to 3M, and allows us to expand into adjacent markets such as construction," said Patrick Deconinck, division vice president, 3M Industrial Adhesives and Tapes Division.
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Venture Tape employs ...
Singer Equities has completed its purchase of National Hose & Accessory based in Houston, TX.&nbsp ;

Mike Deem, the former owner of the company, will continue to manage the day-to-day operations as a standalone business.
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Singer Equities is a private equity firm focusing its investments towards distributorships in the industrial rubber products industry. The other companies in the group include Hampton Rubber Company, Allied Rubber & Supply, RW Connection, Inc., Advance Fluid Connectors, and PRC Industrial ...
The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors is one of nine organizations that joined in filing an amicus curiae ( friend of the court ) brief in the Supreme Court of Ohio in a case focused on the retroactive application of the doctrine of strict liability in product liability actions brought against non-manufacturer product sellers, including wholesalers, distributors and retailers.
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Strict liability is based on the condition of a manufacturer's product rather than the conduct of the defendant.
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According to NAW President Dirk Van Dongen, the association views DiCenzo as a "major, even seminal case that carries with it profound legal and economic ramifications for wholesaler-distributors in Ohio and across the nation."
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In their brief, ...
Regal Beloit Corporation, Beloit, WI, has acquired Jakel Inc. and completed the announced $220 million acquisition of the FASCO Residential/Commercial and FASCO Asia/Pacific operations from Tecumseh Products.
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Both of the acquired businesses manufacture and market motors and blower systems for air-moving applications including alternative fuels systems, water heaters, HVAC systems and other commercial segments. The two independent businesses will be combined and operate as a single unit as part of the Company's Electrical Segment.
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The acquired businesses are anticipated to add approximately $355 million in sales to 2008.
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The six facilities included with the acquisitions are FASCO'S manufacturing and distribution facilities in Eldon and ...
Airgas, Inc., Radnor, PA, has acquired Dantack Corporation, a Grand Prairie, TX-based safety distributor with branches in Columbus, OH, and Richmond, VA. The business generated more than $18 million in sales in 2006.
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The operations will be managed by Airgas Southwest, one of the Airgas regional companies, as a stand-alone business for the first few months. Later, operations in Ohio and Virginia will transition to other Airgas regions.
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Airgas' safety distribution business generated $438 million in sales in fiscal 2007 through telesales and field-based safety specialists within its regional companies.
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Dantack's extensive local coverage throughout Texas, combined with its national accounts program, makes it a great strategic fit for Airgas," said ...
The Home Depot has completed the sale of HD Supply to a trio of private equity firms -Bain Capital, Clayton Dubilier & Rice, and Carlyle Group.
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As announced earlier this week, the terms were as follows: Purchase price of $8.5 billion, The Home Depot to own a 12.5% equity interest for $325 million, and The Home Depot guaranteed a $1 billion senior secured loan.


The acquisition includes a portfolio of 11 businesses and HD Supply Canada. The company will retain the HD Supply name.


We are thrilled to be associated with this group of distinguished private equity firms, and we are excited about the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead for our associates, our customers and our new owners," said Joe DeAngelo, CEO of HD Supply. "As an ...
A U.S. District judge certified a class-action lawsuit Tuesday against pharmaceutical distributor McKesson Corp., San Francisco, CA, in a legal battle over drug pricing, according to law firm Hagen Berman.
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The suit, originally filed in U.S. District Court in Boston, MA, in October 2006 on behalf of consumers and third-party payers, alleges that McKesson -one of the largest pharmaceutical distributors in North America -entered into a secret agreement to artificially inflate the reported average wholesale price of thousands of drugs, a benchmark used by Medicaid and insurance plans to determine payment to pharmacies.
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In her ruling, Judge Patti Saris certified the case as a class action representing millions of healthcare consumers who made co-payments on what ...
The Home Depot, Atlanta, GA, officially announced a change in terms for its sale of HD Supply, its $12 billion wholesale unit. The retailer will sell the unit to a trio of private equity firms for $8.5 billion, nearly $2 billion from the original agreement of $10.3 billion.
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In addition, Home Depot will purchase a 12.5% interest in HD Supply for $325 million and will guarantee a $1 billion loan to the buyers.
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Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers have revised their debt commitment for 100% of the third-party debt financing.
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The deal will close Aug. 30, 2007.
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Home Depot expects to net $7.9 billion in cash proceeds from the sale.
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Despite the softness in the financing and residential construction markets, the ...
According to news reports, Home Depot Inc., Atlanta, GA, has agreed to sell HD Supply for $8.5 billion, roughly $2 billion less than the originally agreed-upon price.
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Private equity firms Bain Capital LLC, Carlyle Group and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice will buy the $12 billion wholesale unit after negotiating a lower price. The negotiations were blamed on tighter credit conditions.
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News reports say Home Depot will finance $1 billion of the purchase and will hold a 13% stake in the unit.
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Home Depot has not yet made an official ...

Wholesale prices moved up 0.2% in May, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods rose 0.3% following a 0.5% decline a month earlier, and the crude goods index climbed 3.6% after rising 3% in April.

In May, a 2.9% increase in finished energy goods prices more than offset a 1.6% decline in the index for finished consumer foods and a 0.1% decrease in prices for finished goods other than foods and energy.

Before seasonal adjustment, the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.5% in May to 170.8 (1982 = 100). From May 2008 to May 2009, finished goods prices decreased 5%. Over the same period, the finished energy goods index fell 27.3% and ...

Numbers released by Panjiva, a firm that tracks overseas suppliers, show an uptick of 2% in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market in May. It is the third monthly increase in a row.

The firm reports a metric that tracks manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to U.S. customers in the most recent three-month period, versus the same period a year ago. These manufacturers are on the Panjiva Watch List. "Significant manufacturers" are those that have shipped 10 or more shipments to the U.S. over the past year. "Significant buyers" are those that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers in the past year.

According to Panjiva, the number of ...

Canadian manufacturing sales edged down 0.1% to $41 billion in April, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada. Manufacturing sales leveled off between February and April, after falling by 18.7% between October 2008and January 2009. Sizable gains in the transportation equipment industry were offset by weakness in other industries. Excluding the transportation equipment industry, manufacturing sales decreased by 2.8%.

Constant dollar manufacturing sales gained 0.4% in April. The slight rise in constant dollar sales indicates an increase in the volume of sales between March and April. Although manufacturing sales remaining largely unchanged in April, sales decreased in 16 of 21 manufacturing industries.

By Sector

The weakness in most sectors was offset by a 16.4% gain in ...

Canadian industries continued to reduce their rate of capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2009, operating at 69.3% of production capacity, down 5.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. It was the first time that industrial capacity use fell below the 70% level since the start of the data series in 1987.

In the first quarter, durable goods industries, especially the transportation equipment industry, the construction sector, and the mining sector (excluding oil and gas extraction), were the main contributors to the overall decline. Weakened global and domestic demand for manufactured goods continued to drive down capacity utilization rates. Of the 21 major industries in the manufacturing group, 18 registered lower rates.

As it did in the fourth quarter of 2008, the ...

Wholesale distribution executives should not underestimate the impact of changes to compensation programs on their work force. To manage this sensitive area in these difficult times, a smart, proactive approach is needed to effectively manage human capital.
 
With today's economic environment and turbulent times, it is no surprise that many companies have had to reshape their business as executives scramble to keep their companies afloat. Business leaders are challenged to find a balance between current finances and long-term strategy.
 
These business decisions also require a close look at the deployment of human resources, including difficult decisions regarding layoffs, restructuring compensation programs and pay practices, reductions in benefits, ...
Many of our readers are seeing direct impacts from the wrenching transformation taking place in the U.S. auto industry. While it is easy to focus on the negative and sensational news our national media regurgitates constantly, there are some important takeaways from this situation for distributors and manufacturers who sell through independent distribution channels.
 
First: The recent financial meltdown did not cause the downfall of the Big Three. The financial crisis precipitated what arguably was more than two decades in the making. Remember the ghost of Ignacio Lopez, GM's purchasing chief in the 1990s?
 
In the 20-plus years I have been covering industrial distribution channels, the supply-chain relationship between these manufacturers and their ...
According to the Federal Reserve Beige Book economic report released Wednesday, economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May, though five Districts noted the downward trend is showing signs of moderating. Though expectations of contacts within the Districts have improved, economic activity is not expected to increase substantially through the end of the year.
 
Here is an overview of the report:
 
Manufacturing declined or remained weak in most Districts. New York characterized the sector as having stabilized, while Dallas mentioned signs of stabilization. In contrast, Richmond reported a rise in both new orders and shipments.
 
Transportation contacts in most Districts say that ...
Modern Distribution Management's April Inflation Index, which measures a cross-section of industrial supplies, was down 0.11% from the previous month, and up 5.73% from April 2008.



Please click below to view a print-ready pdf of the MDM Inflation Index for April 2009, listing the 10 individual product categories that make up the index. ...
At the 16th annual Automotive Outlook Symposium sponsored by the Chicago Federal Reserve, the following median economic forecast of participants was presented:
 
"The nation's economic growth in 2009 will be substantially slower than in 2008, inflation will turn negative (because of lower energy prices and the large amount of slack in the economy), and the unemployment rate will rise substantially. Real GDP, after having fallen 0.8% last year, is forecasted to decrease 1.8% this year and then rise to an above-trend rate of 3.2% in 2010. After rising 1.5% last year, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is expected decline 0.5% this year and then rise at a moderate pace of 1.6% in 2010. The unemployment rate, after having ...
April 2009 wholesale revenues were $309.4 billion, down 0.4% from March and 19.5% from April 2008, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
 
April sales of durable goods were down 1.9% from last month and were down 23.4% from a year ago. Sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies, were down 7.8% from last month and sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 6.5%. Sales of nondurable goods were up 0.8% from last month, but were down 16.1% from last year.
 
Sales of farm product raw materials were up 10.5% from last month and sales of beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverages were up 2.6%.
 
Total inventories were $405.4 billion at the end of April, down 1.4% from the revised March level and were down 6.2% from a year ago. ...
April U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $97.04 million, according to the Association For Manufacturing Technology and the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 41.5% from March and down 77.7% from the total of $435.34 million reported for April 2008. With a year-to-date total of $497.40 million, 2009 is down 70.7% compared with 2008.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

Industry executives have speculated whether we have reached the bottom of this current economic downturn, said Douglas K. Woods, AMT president. "The 41% drop in ...
Canadian contractors took out $4.3 billion in building permits in April, down 5.4% from March. A 14.4% decline in non-residential permits in April more than offset a 4.1% increase in the value of residential permits.
 
In the non-residential sector, the value of permits fell 14.4% to $2.0 billion. The decrease was largely a result of lower commercial construction intentions in Ontario and lower institutional construction intentions in British Columbia.
 
In the residential sector, the value of permits rose 4.1% to $2.3 billion. This was attributable to increases in single-family permits in eight provinces. The total value of intentions was down in four provinces: Ontario, British Columbia, Newfoundland and Labrador, and ...
New orders for manufactured goods in April, up two of the last three months, increased $2.5 billion or 0.7% to $344.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. This followed a 1.9% March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%.
 
Shipments, down nine consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.2% to $357.3 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.8% March decrease. Unfilled orders, down seven consecutive months, decreased $8.9 billion or 1.2% to $748.7 billion.
 
This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since November 2001-July 2002. This followed a 1.7% March decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was ...
The manufacturing sector failed to grow in May, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
 
The Institute for Supply Management reported: "While employment and inventories continue to decline at a rapid rate and the sector continued to contract during the month, there are signs of improvement. May is the first month of growth in the New Orders Index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth. New orders are considered a leading indicator, and the index has risen rapidly after bottoming at 23.1 percent in December 2008.
 
"Also, the Customers' Inventories Index remained below 50 percent for the second consecutive month, offering encouragement that supply chains ...
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $3.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $161.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This was the second increase in the last three months and followed a 2.1 percent March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders also increased 1.0 percent.
 
Transportation equipment, up three consecutive months, had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 5.4 percent to $40.5 billion.
 
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, down nine consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $174.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.9 percent ...
The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) were both down 0.5% in April compared with March, halting their upward movements since the start of the year according to Statistics Canada.
 
The decline in the IPPI was led by lower prices for motor vehicles and other transport equipment (-2.2%) and pulp and paper products (-2.3%). These two product groups are more affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate.
 
The Canadian dollar rose 3.3% in April in relation to its US counterpart. If the exchange rate used to convert these prices had remained unchanged, the IPPI would have risen 0.3% instead of declining 0.5%.
 
12-month change
Year over year, the IPPI fell 2.2% in April following ...
Wayne, PA-based Moro Corp. sent out a press release today announcing its first sales order it says is being financed by the economic stimulus plan. Its Construction Products Division received a contract to provide reinforcing steel to parts of the I-295 Pavement Rehabilitation and Bridge Deck Replacement in two New Jersey counties.
 
Adam Fein, in his Distribution Trends blog, looks at the scheduled outlays under the stimulus plan. Click here to read his latest update on the economic stimulus package. ...
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) declined 1.1% in April to a seasonally adjusted level of 81.0 (2002 = 100). Revised data show the index decreased 2.9% in March to 81.8.
 
The Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) edged down 0.2% in April. Regional output in April was down 22.7% from a year earlier - lower than the 14.3% decrease in national output.
 
The region's steel sector output declined 3.4% in April after dropping 6.1% in March. The nation's steel output was down 1.8%. Regional steel output dropped 36.0% from its April 2008 level, and national steel output fell 25.3%.
 
Regional auto sector production moved down 2.0% in April after decreasing 0.8% in March. The ...
The National Association for Business Economics reports in its latest survey that its panel of business economists expects the recession will end soon, but that the economic recovery will be "considerably more moderate" than those typically experienced after steep declines.
 
And despite "encouraging signs seen in the last several weeks," the NABE panel said downside risks for the next several quarters remain - and include large job losses, no improvement in credit conditions, and sharp declines in home values. As a result, consumers remain cautious.
 
Forecasts from the survey:


  • Real GDP forecast to rise at a 1.2% rate in the second half of 2009, resulting in a 1.2% decline at year-end.
    ...
U.S. manufacturing production continued to plummet in the first quarter of 2009 and global contagion continues, but a confluence of factors portend a modest rebound in 2010, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI U.S. Industrial Outlook: The Great Recession, a quarterly report that analyzes 27 major industries.
 
On an annual basis, MAPI forecasts manufacturing production to fall 12% in 2009 and grow 2% in 2010.  Manufacturing industrial production, measured on a quarter-to-quarter basis, declined at a 22% annual rate in first quarter 2009 after falling at an 18% annual rate in fourth quarter 2008.
 
Production in non-high-tech manufacturing dropped by a precipitous 22% annual rate in the first quarter of 2009.  Non-high-tech ...

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