2009

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -2.96 in March, down slightly from -2.82 in February. All four broad categories of indicators continued to make negative contributions to the index in March.
 
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -3.27 in March from -3.57 in the previous month. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, it indicates little inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
 
Employment-related indicators made a large negative contribution of -1.27 to the index in March after contributing -1.29 in the previous month. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined 663,000 in March, after decreasing 651,000 in February; …

Canadian manufacturing sales increased 2.2% to $42.9 billion in February, the first increase since July 2008, according to Statistics Canada. Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts industries in Ontario were behind most of the gains in February, following widespread slowdowns and shutdowns in January.

Excluding motor vehicles and parts and accessories, manufacturing sales edged down 0.2%, the seventh monthly decline in a row.

Constant dollar manufacturing sales, which are measured in 2002 prices, rose 2.6% to $39.4 billion in February. This was the first increase in constant dollar sales since September 2008.

At the industry level, sales in 9 of 21 manufacturing industries increased …

Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, output in March fell to its lowest level since December 1998 and was nearly 13 percent below its year-earlier level.
 
Production in manufacturing moved down 1.7 percent in March and has registered five consecutive quarterly decreases. Broad-based declines in production continued; one exception was the output of motor vehicles and parts, which advanced slightly in March but remained well below its year-earlier level.
 
Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 …

While the global economic picture will remain troubled for the near term, slightly improved U.S. economic data could be a harbinger of positive signals for a grim world landscape, according to a new report.

In the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: Second Quarter 2009 Through Fourth Quarter 2010, economist Cliff Waldman writes that signs of firming demand in the U.S. economy, along with a global move toward historically accommodative monetary policies, suggests that a weak rebound in industrialized country output and a modest acceleration of developing country output could begin in the later months of 2009.

While the rare financial underpinnings of the current global crisis make it more difficult than ever to assess the impact …