2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased for the third consecutive month in June, improving 0.7%. The six-month change in the index has risen to 2.0% (a 4.1% annual rate) in the period through June, up substantially from -3.1% (a -6.2% annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading indicators have remained balanced with the weaknesses in recent months. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 100.9 (2004=100).

The Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. continued to decrease in June amid further contractions in employment and industrial production, posting a negative 0.2%.

Between December 2008 and June 2009, the index fell 3.0% (a -5.9% annual rate), slightly faster than the decline of 2.8% (a -5.6% annual rate) for …

The road to recovery in the manufacturing sector will likely be slow, arduous, and painstaking, but there is some evidence that the worst has passed, according to the quarterly Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey on the Business Outlook- June 2009. The June 2009 composite index rose to 24 from an historic low of 21 reported in the March 2009 report.

At 24%, the index indicates that overall manufacturing activity is expected to contract over the next three to six months. While the index is at its second lowest level since the survey originated in March 1972, it marks the first time it has shown improvement since June 2007. The survey was conducted on a semi-annual basis from 1972 to 1991 before being conducted on a quarterly basis in 1991. It should be noted, however, that the …

Canadian manufacturing sales fell 6.0% to $38.4 billion in May, the lowest level since November 1998. Manufacturing sales leveled off between February and April, after falling by 18.7% between October 2008 and January 2009. Plant shutdowns in the motor vehicle and primary metal industries, along with continued volatility in the aerospace industry, accounted for most of the decline in May.

Constant dollar manufacturing sales fell 5.8% in May, indicating that lower volumes rather than price changes were behind the decrease in sales. Sales in 17 of 21 manufacturing industries decreased in May, accounting for about three-quarters of total sales.

By Sector
The transportation equipment industry led the declines, falling 25.7% compared with April. Excluding the transportation equipment …

The worldwide plunge in manufacturing output seems to have reached a temporary bottom, even in countries such as Japan where the industrial downturn was especially severe. Nonetheless, the immediate outlook for a resumption of world economic growth remains tentative and in flux, according to the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: Third Quarter 2009 Through Fourth Quarter 2010.

Weak growth, at best, is in store for the advanced economies during 2010, according to MAPI economist Cliff Waldman.The short-term prospects are mixed for key emerging market economies, depending upon the degree of openness, export diversification, and ties to the United States. The report says that U.S. export demand will contract at an historic pace before …