July 2009

Canadian manufacturing sales fell 6.0% to $38.4 billion in May, the lowest level since November 1998. Manufacturing sales leveled off between February and April, after falling by 18.7% between October 2008 and January 2009. Plant shutdowns in the motor vehicle and primary metal industries, along with continued volatility in the aerospace industry, accounted for most of the decline in May.

Constant dollar manufacturing sales fell 5.8% in May, indicating that lower volumes rather than price changes were behind the decrease in sales. Sales in 17 of 21 manufacturing industries decreased in May, accounting for about three-quarters of total sales.

By Sector
The transportation equipment industry led the declines, falling 25.7% compared with April. Excluding the transportation equipment …

The worldwide plunge in manufacturing output seems to have reached a temporary bottom, even in countries such as Japan where the industrial downturn was especially severe. Nonetheless, the immediate outlook for a resumption of world economic growth remains tentative and in flux, according to the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: Third Quarter 2009 Through Fourth Quarter 2010.

Weak growth, at best, is in store for the advanced economies during 2010, according to MAPI economist Cliff Waldman.The short-term prospects are mixed for key emerging market economies, depending upon the degree of openness, export diversification, and ties to the United States. The report says that U.S. export demand will contract at an historic pace before …

Panjiva, a firm that tracks overseas suppliers to the U.S., saw a 1% decline in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. in June, similar to May’s trade data. According to the firm, the slight decline from May to June is slightly less than last year’s May-to-June decrease. To Panjiva, it looks like global trade is tracking its "typical seasonal path."

Panjiva Watch List numbers were unchanged:
The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remains at 30%. The percentage of significant buyers having done business wtih a Panjiva Watach List supplier in the preceding three months remains at 40%.

About the Watch List:
Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent …

The European manufacturing sector saw an accelerated downward trend in the first part of 2009 and will face challenges throughout the year, before seeing the potential for marginal improvement in 2010, according to the semiannual Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI European Industrial Outlook: 2009-2010 (ER-682e), a report that analyzes 14 major industries.

The report separately analyzes two distinct regions: Western Europe and Central Europe. The former generally comprises the 15 countries that form the currency union (Eurozone), while the latter includes the four largest economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE4): the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia.

Kris Bledowski, Ph.D., Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Economist and report author, forecasts a continued decline for …