June 30, 2009

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) declined 3.1% in May, to a seasonally adjusted level of 78.2 (2002 = 100). Revised data show the index was down 1.4% in April, to 80.7.

The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) was down 1.0% in May. Regional output in May declined 24.4% from a year earlier- lower than the 15.2% decrease in national output.

Regional auto sector production dropped 10.7% in May after declining 3.0% in April. The nation’s auto output was down 2.6% in May. The Midwest’s automotive output was down 39.2% in May relative to its year-ago value, and the nation’s auto output was down 22.0%. The troubles of the Detroit Three auto companies seem to be affecting Midwestern production much more than that of other areas …

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -2.30 in May, little changed from -2.27 in April. All four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in May.

The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was -2.67 in May, up slightly from -2.73 in the previous month. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates low inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The small decrease in the index in May was primarily due to the production and income category of indicators. This category made a larger negative contribution to the index in May, -0.65, compared with its contribution in April, -0.47. …