June 25, 2009

The broad improvement of the Leading Economic Index and the stabilization of the Coincident Economic Index suggest that the recession that began in the U.S. in December 2007 will likely ease in the near term, according to the latest report from The Conference Board.

The LEI increased sharply for the second consecutive month in May, increasing 1.2%. Seven of the ten indicators that make up the LEI posted increases. The index rose 1.2% (a 2.4% annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009, the first time the index has increased over a six-month period since July 2007. The LEI currently stands at 100.2 (2004=100).

The CEI continued to decrease in May, falling 0.2% amid further declines in industrial production and employment. However, two of the four indicators showed improvement. …

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $2.8 billion or 1.8% to $163.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. This was the third increase in the last four months and followed a 1.8% April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1%. Excluding defense, new orders also increased 1.4%.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down ten consecutive months, decreased $3.6 billion or 2.1% to $169.9 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5% April decrease.

Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down eight consecutive months, decreased $2.0 billion or 0.3% to $747.5 billion. This followed a …