May 2009

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -2.06 in April, up from -3.36 in March. All four broad categories of indicators improved in April, but each continued to make a negative contribution to the index.
 
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -2.65 in April from -3.29 in the previous month, improving for the third consecutive month. April's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, it indicates low inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
 
The increase in the index was primarily due to the production and income category, which made a much smaller negative contribution of -0.35 to the index in April compared with -1.09 in March. Total ...

Canadian wholesale sales in current dollars fell 0.6% to $40.5 billion in March. Declining sales in the building materials and machinery and electronic equipment sectors were important factors contributing to this decrease. In terms of the volume of sales, wholesale sales were down 1.3%.
 
Canadian wholesalers sell to both the domestic and international markets, and are active importers and exporters. The larger decline in the constant dollar sales compared with the current dollar sales in March reflects higher prices paid by wholesalers for imported goods. This was due in part to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar in March.
 
In March, four out of seven sectors, accounting for two-thirds of total wholesale sales, posted ...

For the first time in 18 months, strengths among the components used to establish the Leading Economic Index exceeded the weaknesses, according to a report from The Conference Board. At the same time, the Coincident Economic Index and the Lagging Economic Index each fell slightly.
 
Seven of the ten indicators used for the LEI in the U.S. increased in April, led by increases in stock prices and interest rate spread. The LEI rose 1% to 99.0 in April, the first increase in seven months. For the six months ending in April, the index has fallen 0.6%.
 
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has been generally falling since the middle of 2007, but the pace of its decline has slowed substantially in recent months. With this month's sharp and widespread increase, the ...

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which grew by a miniscule 1.1% in 2008, will decline 2.9% in 2009 before rebounding to 1.9% growth in 2010, according to the latest Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast.
 
The GDP forecast for 2009 is lower than the previously anticipated 2.1% decline for this year projected in the February 2009 release.
 
We are in a severe global recession where manufacturing is taking the brunt of the decline. Fortunately, we are starting to see signs of economic conditions beginning to stabilize, said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI chief economist. "We expect that the eventual recovery will be sluggish due to continued deleveraging by consumers as they move away from ...