April 2009

Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, output in March fell to its lowest level since December 1998 and was nearly 13 percent below its year-earlier level.
 
Production in manufacturing moved down 1.7 percent in March and has registered five consecutive quarterly decreases. Broad-based declines in production continued; one exception was the output of motor vehicles and parts, which advanced slightly in March but remained well below its year-earlier level.
 
Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 …

While the global economic picture will remain troubled for the near term, slightly improved U.S. economic data could be a harbinger of positive signals for a grim world landscape, according to a new report.

In the MAPI Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Exports, Global Growth, and the Dollar: Second Quarter 2009 Through Fourth Quarter 2010, economist Cliff Waldman writes that signs of firming demand in the U.S. economy, along with a global move toward historically accommodative monetary policies, suggests that a weak rebound in industrialized country output and a modest acceleration of developing country output could begin in the later months of 2009.

While the rare financial underpinnings of the current global crisis make it more difficult than ever to assess the impact …